Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
India Finally Showing Signs of LifeWe remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA. In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the latest pullback was testing the uptrend, and that we were buyers, which has worked out well with the index back at all-time highs. Short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US include $141.00-$141.60, $140.20-$140.64, the 6-month uptrend (currently at $138.50), and $135.70. Longer-term supports include $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126. Market dynamics remain risk-on, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early-2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. Our four country overweights include Taiwan (TAIEX), China (Shanghai Composite), Korea (KOSPI), and the U.S. (S&P 500). Most of our top ideas are within these countries. All four of these indexes hit new YTD (China) or all-time (U.S., Taiwan, and Korea) highs this week, as did Europe (EURO STOXX 50) and Japan (TOPIX). This is very bullish for global equities, and we continue to expect more upside ahead... see page 2.
Emerging Markets Overview. We remain bullish on EM with the 6-month uptrend intact on MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US). We expect support at the uptrend and 50-day MA, and also $54.70-$55.00. Taiwan, China, and Korea remain our favorite EM countries to be buying/overweight, though India's SENSEX is becoming much more attractive as well -- add exposure... see chart below. In terms of Sectors, MSCI EM Technology, Materials, and Industrials are our favorites to be buying/overweight.
Actionable Themes: Technology and Materials. Technology remains global leadership -- remain overweight. Materials is leading within Korea and China, and is also emerging as leadership within Europe -- add exposure... see pages 3-21.
Best Mart 360 Holdings Ltd. Best Mart 360 Holdings Limited is an investment holding company mainly engaged in the operation of leisure food chain retail stores. The Company mainly supplies imported prepackaged leisure foods and other grocery goods, including packaged bakery products and snacks, confectioneries, nuts and dried fruits, beverages and wines, grains and other miscellaneous foods, personal care products, baby foods and products, health foods and supplements, and miscellaneous household items. Miscellaneous household items include cleaning agents, table ware and rain gear. The Company mainly operates chain retail stores under the brand name of Best Mart 360.
DISCO and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture, sale and maintenance of precision cutting, grinding and polishing machines. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of precision diamond abrasive tools, and disassembly and recycling of precision cutting, grinding and polishing machines. Co.'s principal precision machines are dicing and cutting saws, laser saws, grinders, polishers, wafer mounters, die separators, surface planers, water jet saws, and products for new processes. Co.'s principal precision processing tools are dicing blades, grinding wheels, and dry polishing wheels.
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. is a China-based company principally engaged in the research, development, manufacture and sales of electronic equipment. The Company's main products include communications network equipment, cloud service equipment, precision tools and industrial robots. The Company's products are applied in smart phones, broadband and wireless networks, the infrastructure of multimedia service operators, telecom operators and enterprise networks and data centers, as well as terminal products needed by Internet value-added service providers, and the automatic intelligent manufacturing of precision core components. The Company distributes its products in domestic market and to overseas markets.
Fujikura is mainly engaged in the manufacture, sale and installation of telecommunication cable, electric cable and electronic materials. Along with its affiliates, Co. operates in four business segments: power & telecommunication systems, electronics business, automotive products and real estate. Co.'s principal products include power cables, telecommunication cables, aluminum wires, enameled wires, optical fibers, optical fiber cables, telecommunication and optical components, fiber optic equipment, network equipment, flexible printed circuits, electronic wiring, HDD components, connectors, automotive wire harnesses, and others. Co. is also engaged in the leasing of real estate.
HORIBA and its affiliates are engaged in the manufacture and sale of measuring instruments and analytical instruments. Co.'s business segments are automotive test systems, process & environmental instruments & systems, medical-diagnostic instruments & systems, semiconductor instruments & systems, and scientific instruments & systems. Co.'s principal products are emission measurement systems, automotive emission analyzers, and on-board emission measurement systems; scientific analysis instruments and environmental measuring instruments; equipment for blood sample analysis; mass flow controllers, chemical concentration monitors, and thin-film analyzers; and scientific analysis instruments.
KG Intelligence CO., LTD. is a Japan-based company in the provision of information service. The Company is mainly engaged in publishing of information magazines. Through its subsidiary, it is also engaged in operation of Internet information sites, design and development of software, as well as configuration, management and maintenance of networks.
Lasertec is mainly engaged in the development, manufacture, and sale of semiconductor-related products and other products, as well as the provision of services for its products. Co.'s principal products include systems related to defect inspection/measurement of mask, mask blanks and wafer; systems related to defect inspection of large size photomask and PV cell conversion efficiency distribution measurement system; and systems related to microscope based on confocal optics. Along with its subsidiaries, Co. offers its products and services in Japan as well as in North America, Europe, and Asia regions.
Nagaoka International Corp. NAGAOKA INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION is a Japan-based company mainly engaged in the water related business and the energy related business. The Company has two business segments. The Energy Related segment is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of inside devices Screen Internals for petroleum refining and petrochemical plants. The Water Related segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of screens for water intake, as well as the design, manufacture, construction, sale and maintenance of ultra high speed non medicine note biological treatment equipment CHEMILES, high-speed seabed infiltration system HiSIS and other products.
TDK is a manufacturer of recording media, ferrite products and recording device products, and a producer of inductor, ceramic capacitor, magnet, HDD head and other components. Co.'s principal business segments are passive components, sensor application products, magnetic application products, film application products and others. Co.'s principal products include ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, inductive devices, high-frequency components, piezoelectric materials and circuit protection components, sensors, HDD head suspension, recording devices, power supplies and magnets, and mechatronics.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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