Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.11 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Testing 3900; Commodities Topping?

Major equity indexes remain in pullback mode, consistent with our narrative of the past two weeks. Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM). We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse... see charts below.

Commodity Prices Topping? We believe sustained lower commodity prices are needed in order to bring down inflation, which is needed to get the Fed to loosen policy. And, until that happens, market indexes will have a hard time establishing a reliable bottom. As discussed in yesterday's ETF Pathfinder and last Thursday's Int'l Compass, we do see commodity prices as likely headed lower, following a false breakout above $37 on the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) and the subsequent 1.5-month uptrend violation. Ultimately, we need to see the DJP break below $32.50 in order to confirm a major top. RBOB Gasoline futures are trading at 8-month lows, and at this point we feel confident in saying that gasoline has formed a major top. This is great news for the consumer. WTI crude oil is near a major break below $85, and we expect natural gas prices (UNG) to move lower as well, at least in the near-term... see pages 3-4.
Big Picture Trends: Negatives. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is breaking out to new highs. The 10-year Treasury yield remains well-above 2.5%-2.7% support, and high yield spreads are widening again. If these do not reverse lower soon, market indexes are likely to continue falling... see page 5.
Big Picture Trends: Positives. The Financial Sector (XLF) displays a bullish RS reversal, with broker-dealers/exchanges (IAI) leading the way. RS for Discretionary (XLY, RCD) has generally moved sideways in the face of this recent pullback, a constructive signal. Additionally, Consumer Discretionary vs. Staples ratios (XLY vs. XLP and RCD vs. RHS) are moving sideways, supporting our neutral outlook... see pages 6-7.
Underlyings
Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

Centrus Energy Corporation

Centrus Energy is a supplier of nuclear fuel and services for the nuclear power industry. The company operates two business segments: low-enriched uranium (LEU), which supplies various components of nuclear fuel to utilities; and contract services, which provides engineering, design, and manufacturing services to government and private sector customers. The company's LEU business involves the sale of low-enriched uranium, its components, and natural uranium to utilities operating commercial nuclear power plants. LEU is a component in the production of nuclear fuel for reactors that produce electricity. The company supplies LEU to both domestic and international utilities for use in nuclear reactors.

Deere & Company

Deere & Co. operates the following segments: Agriculture and Turf, which manufactures and distributes a line of agriculture and turf equipment and related service parts, including utility tractors, tractor loaders, combines, cotton pickers, cotton strippers, and sugarcane harvesters; Construction and Forestry, which manufactures and distributes a range of machines and service parts used in construction, earthmoving, road building, material handling and timber harvesting, including backhoe loaders and crawler dozers and loaders; and Financial Services, which finances sales and leases by the company's dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment.

DHT Holdings Inc.

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels is engaged in uranium mining, milling, development, and exploration with operating uranium mines, mines on standby, development projects and exploration properties located in the United States. Co.'s assets include its 100% ownership of the White Mesa Mill in Utah. Co. also produces vanadium as a co-product from some of its mines in Colorado and Utah. In addition, Co. recycles uranium-bearing waste materials, referred to as "alternate feed materials", for the recovery of uranium, alone or in combination with other metals, at its White Mesa Mill.

Euronav NV

Euronav is a provider of maritime shipping and offshore services engaged primarily in the transportation and storage of crude oil. As of Apr. 4, 2017, Co. owned and operated a modern fleet of 55 vessels (including four chartered-in vessels) with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 13.7 million deadweight tons, or dwt, consisting of 31 very large crude carriers, one ultra large crude carrier, 21 Suezmax vessels, and two floating, storage and offloading vessels. Co. has two operating segments: the operation of crude oil tankers on the international markets (tankers) and the floating production, storage and offloading operations.

Frontline Ltd.

Golar LNG Limited

Golar LNG is a midstream liquefied natural gas (LNG) company based in Bermuda. Co. is engaged in the transportation, regasification, liquefaction and trading of LNG. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, operation and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units (FSRUs), and the development of liquefaction projects such as Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas Vessels. Co. owns and operates a fleet of 19 LNG carriers and seven FSRUs, and under management agreements operates Golar LNG Partner LP's fleet of six FSRUs and four LNG carriers.

International Seaways Inc.

Lindsay Corporation

Lindsay is engaged in providing a variety of proprietary water management and road infrastructure products and services. The company has operations which are categorized into two key reporting segments, Irrigation and Infrastructure. The company's irrigation segment includes the manufacture and marketing of center pivot, lateral move, hose reel irrigation systems, and repair and replacement parts for its irrigation systems and controls. The company's infrastructure segment includes the manufacture and marketing of moveable barriers, specialty barriers, crash cushions and end terminals, road marking and road safety equipment, large diameter steel tubing, and railroad signals and structures.

Nordic American Tankers Limited

Overseas Shipholding Group

Overseas Shipholding Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels engaged in the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. Flag trades. The company has one reportable business segment. The company's U.S. Flag Fleet consists of various owned and chartered-in Jones Act Handysize Product Carriers and Articulated Tug Barges and non-Jones Act U.S. Flag Handysize Product Carriers that participate in the U.S. Maritime Security Program. Under the Jones Act, shipping between U.S. ports, including the movement of Alaskan crude oil to U.S. ports, is reserved for U.S. Flag vessels.

Scorpio Tankers Inc.

Teekay Tankers

Titan Machinery

Titan Machinery owns and operates a network of agricultural and construction equipment stores. The company has three segments: Agriculture, Construction and International, within which the company engages in: new and used equipment sales; parts sales; equipment repair and maintenance services; and equipment rental and other activities. The agricultural equipment the company sells and services includes machinery and attachments for uses ranging from farming to home and garden use. The construction equipment the company sells and services includes heavy construction machinery, light industrial machinery, road and highway construction machinery, mining, energy, and forestry operations equipment.

Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd.

Unimit Engineering

Unimit Engineering Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company engaged in steel fabrication business. The Company principal activities include designs, shop fabrication, field installations and erections of steel products and construction works according to contracts. Its main products and services cover pressure vessels, machinery parts, storage tanks, structures and piping, and mechanical installations. The pressure vessels include liquid petroleum gas (LPG) tanks, cryogenic tanks, international standards organization (ISO) tanks, columns, towers, and shell and tube heat exchangers. Its machinery parts include fan casings, pre heaters and water treatment parts. The storage tanks consist of atmospheric pressure ionization (API) storage tanks, silos and hoppers. The structures and piping comprise steel structures, piping, platforms and ladders. Its mechanical installations include piping and equipment installations, modules, modifications and shut down works.

Valmont Industries Inc.

Valmont Industries is a global producer of fabricated metal products. The company's segments are: Engineered Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures steel, aluminum, and composite poles and structures to which lighting and traffic control fixtures are attached for a range of outdoor lighting applications; Utility Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures tapered steel, pre-stressed concrete and hybrid structures, and steel lattice structures; Coatings, which provides the following services, including hot-dipped galvanizing, anodizing, powder coating, and e-coating; and Irrigation, which manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment and related service parts.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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