Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield Rolling OverLarge-caps (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain bullish, mid-caps (IJH) are starting to outperform, and small-caps (IWM, IJR) are finally breaking out from major 2-year bases. Market generated information continues to tell us that a resurgence on the inflation front is unlikely; the 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above major 4.35% resistance and appears to be rolling over, while mid-caps are starting to outperform (and potentially small-caps as well). For this and many other reasons highlighted below, our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact.
Bullish Outlook Intact. Broad market indexes are all bullish, ranging from large-caps to micro-caps (SPY, QQQ, IWM, IJH, RSP, VXF, IWC). More Sectors are being added to the list of those that are breaking above major resistances, the latest being Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Materials (XLB) breaking above 1-1.5+ year resistances. High yield spreads are at 2-year narrows. Defensive Sectors including Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) are hitting 20+ year RS lows. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is below $106 and has been unable to break above $104.70. The 10-year Treasury yield is below 4.35%. Gold (GLD) appears to be breaking out from a 3.5-year base. This all continues to support our bullish outlook; we will need to see SPY and QQQ close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 days in order to get more cautious.... see charts below and page 2.
Actionable Industry ETFs: XRT, XBI, ARKW, and ITB... see page 9.
EM and Int'l Markets. MSCI EAFE (EFA) remains bullish -- buy/stay long. MSCI EM (EEM) continues to build a massive 2-year base... see page 10.
Actionable Int'l ETFs: DXJ, EIS, HEDJ, EWG, EWI, EWD, EIRL, and INDA
Seroja Investments is an investment holding company. Co.'s core business consists of specialist engineering and contracting, project management, manufacture of construction products and trading of construction equipment and materials. These activities are organized into: Geotechnic Division - deals with activities beneath the ground such as underground engineering, soil improvement, trenchless construction, instrumentation and heavy foundation; and Structural Systems Division - deals with activities above the ground such as construction and engineering works, including prestressing, precast concrete, structural repairs, waterproofing systems, bearing and formworks.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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