Vermilion Research - Select Sector SPDR-Energy (XLE) ... Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research Ideas

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Vermilion Research

Dave Nicoski ...

Ross LaDuke

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight

We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000, August 2007, and February 2022, whereby the SPX pulled back 10-14%, then rallied back to test the highs before starting new bear markets. This is why we laid out our expectations in our latest Compass (8/13/24) for the S&P 500 to test YTD highs or potentially make a lower high near the 5400 or 5585 levels (though it did easily move above 5400). We certainly do not know for sure i

19/08/2024 1 EN

Underlyings

Select Sector SPDR-Energy

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US81369Y5069 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Financial

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US81369Y6059 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Utilities

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US81369Y8865 NYSE Arca United States

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

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Provider

Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

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Analysts

Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-day MAs (where we would buy) on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Ultimately, we ...

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Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and that we see a high probability of significant upside going into year end and the early part of 2025. A...

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Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives, and this is the ideal t...

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Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

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Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670. We have discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and that we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025. This remains our expectation as long as the aforementioned supports hold on MSCI ACWI and the S&P 500. In terms...

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Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

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