Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to UnderweightWe are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000, August 2007, and February 2022, whereby the SPX pulled back 10-14%, then rallied back to test the highs before starting new bear markets. This is why we laid out our expectations in our latest Compass (8/13/24) for the S&P 500 to test YTD highs or potentially make a lower high near the 5400 or 5585 levels (though it did easily move above 5400). We certainly do not know for sure i
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Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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