AVIATION SECTOR 2025 – FIRM STEPS OF GROWTH
The aviation industry has demonstrated a strong recovery in 2024, following the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating global inflation between 2020 and 2023. Air travel demand has returned to its pre-pandemic growth despite constraints in capacity. Airfreight volumes have also seen positive trends, supported by a recovery in demand from the low base of 2023 and a shift from sea freight to air freight amid rising ocean freight rates. The robust productivity growth has highlighted "bright spots" in the financial performance of key players in the aviation sector, including ACV (airport operator), HVN, VJC (airlines), and SCS (cargo terminals) in 2024.In 2025, international passenger traffic and export-import cargo volumes are forecasted to grow steadily, driven by improvements in tourism and consumption. However, growth is expected to slow down to normal levels as the low-base effect fades. This year will mark a preparatory phase for the key project of Long Thanh International Airport, which operates by the end of 2026. The increased capacity will help reduce the congestion at Tan Son Nhat Airport. As a result, there will be growth opportunities for trusted companies to manage non-aeronautical services at Long Thanh Airport.
Overall, we maintain a positive outlook for the aviation sector in 2025. However, much of this potential has already been reflected in stock prices, specifically for ACV (Neutral, Target Price: VND 127,800 per share) and SCS (Accumulate, Target Price: VND 88,700 per share).
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