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Credit growth in relation to GDP growth

• As of June 30, 2023, credit balance reached VND 49 quadrilion, increasing by 4.7% compared to last year, which is still far from the target of 14% for the whole year of 2023. At the same time, GDP growth in the first six months recorded only 3.7%, which is also  far from the target of 6.5% for the whole year.
• According to the estimate over the past 10 years, the credit growth in the last six months compared to the first six months in the year reached an average of 4 % in a period from 2013 to 2022 (the highest number was in 2014, which reached more than 10%). Service, trade and construction sectors always have the highest demand for credit growth , with the average growth rate of the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year being 11.6% , 7.2% and 9.3%, respectively. We believe that the ability to absorb capital by the trade and construction sectors is currently facing many difficulties due to the demand that has not really recovered plus the congestion from the real estate industry. The capital absorption capacity of the economy for the whole year 2023 is estimated at12%.
• The highest contribution to GDP growth during the 5-year period was the service sector with an average of more than 44%, followed by the industry sector with an average of more than 31%. Therefore, in order to achieve the best GDP growth, credit needs to flow strongly into these two industries by the end of 2023.