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NLG - Handover revenue continues to come from existing projects

Q4-FY25: Profit recovered strongly thanks to one-off from divestment
• Q4/2025 business results: Net revenue reached VND 1,704 billion (-9% QoQ, -73% YoY), recorded mainly from the handovers at Valora Southgate, Akari 2 and Nam Long Can Tho. However, the main highlight lies in the financial revenue of VND 489 billion from the transfer of 15% of capital at the Izumi City project, helping the NPAT-MI reaching VND 348 billion (+138% QoQ, - 31% YoY).
• Gross profit margin remained positive at 46% thanks to a diversified structure of handover products (low-rise, high-rise and land plots). SG&A expenses decreased by 51% YoY in absolute value, reflecting efforts to optimize the apparatus, although the SG&A/Revenue ratio increased to 25.8% due to lower revenue size over the same period.
• Accumulated for the whole year of 2025: Revenue reached VND 5,645 billion (-22% YoY), but NPAT-MI grew impressively +36% YoY, reaching VND 701 billion. The bright spot came from the record presales of VND 11,854 billion (+120% YoY), creating an abundant backlog for the period 2026-2027. Inventory fell sharply (-51% YoY), after accounting for the Izumi project to become an associated company.
Q1-FY26 outlook: Modest revenue, coming from the handover of existing projects
• Revenue in Q1/2026 is expected to reach VND 582 billion (-55% YoY), mainly coming from blocks being implemented at Valora Southgate (VND 200 billion), EhomeS Can Tho (VND 166 billion), and some other projects (Izumi,...). Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 46%.
• Net profit is forecast at 12% (NPAT-MI reached VND 70 billion). Financial income will be significantly "out of breath" due to the absence of spikes, while interest expenses maintain pressure on cash flow with total outstanding loans reaching VND 5,522 billion.
• In terms of sales in 2026, we cautiously forecast sales at VND 11,595 billion (-2% YoY), when real estate lending rates are inching up and credit room is limited in the first half of 2026.
Views and recommendations
We use a net asset valuation (RNAV) method to reflect the value of NLG's land fund. The enterprise possesses the advantages of: (1) Large-scale clean land fund located in key infrastructure axes (Ring Road 3, Metro system, inter-regional expressway), benefiting from the trend of people moving out of the center for real housing needs; 2/ Taking advantage of the scarcity of new supply and credit support policies in the 2024-2025 period, businesses will promote sales and accumulate a large backlog, expecting handover revenue to peak in 2027.
On that basis, we determine the target price for NLG stock at VND 37,100/share, equivalent to an upside of 34% compared to the closing price on April 6th, 2026. We recommend BUY for long-term investors when the stock is trading at a discount to the business's assets.