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DCM – Q4/2025 Business Performance: Benefited from Higher Selling Prices and Lower Input Gas Costs YoY

• In Q4/2025, the company recorded net revenue of VND 4,528.3 billion (+7% YoY), while NPAT-MI surged impressively by 38% to VND 390 billion. The primary driver was a sharp improvement in gross margin to 27.6% (from 19.7% in the same period last year), driven by strong price increases for key products—Urea and NPK rose by 8% and 29% YoY, respectively—while input gas costs were estimated to be 13% lower YoY.
• By the end of 2025, net revenue recorded an impressive 26% YoY growth, reached VND 16,960 billion. The main contributors to this strong result were the significant breakthroughs in the Trading and NPK segments, which grew by 39% and 64%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Urea segment posted more modest growth of 16%. Notably, NPAT-MI reached VND 1,915 billion (+35% YoY). This robust profitability improvement was primarily driven by a sharp expansion in the Urea segment gross margin, rising from 22% to 33%, directly benefiting from a 12% increase in Urea selling prices.
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran have directly fueled a sharp surge in crude oil prices, which in turn has driven strong gains in TTF gas prices as well as Urea and NPK fertilizer prices. This development has created positive sentiment for DCM’s share price, as the market anticipates a potential breakout in the company’s 2026 NPAT in line with rising commodity prices.
• Nevertheless, the risk of a fertilizer price reversal remains significant due to the unpredictable timing of conflict resolution, which could directly and negatively impact the company’s business performance. In our base-case scenario—assuming the conflict is brought under control relatively soon—we forecast NPAT growth for 2026 to remain steady at around 10% YoY.