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Fisheries Sector in 2025 – Unpredictable Fluctuations

• The export value of pangasius in 2024 reached $2 billion (+9% YoY), driven by a 16% increase in production volume despite average selling prices being 6% lower than the same period last year. The strong export growth was mainly attributed to the U.S. market (+29% YoY), while the Chinese market slightly declined by 1% YoY, and the EU market saw a marginal increase of 1% YoY. Average selling prices in the U.S./China/EU markets were respectively -4%/-14%/-5% YoY.
• The total export value of the shrimp industry in 2024 reached $3.8 billion (+14% YoY), primarily driven by other shrimp products such as lobster, while white-leg shrimp saw a modest increase of 8% YoY and black tiger shrimp declined by -3% YoY. The robust growth in white-leg shrimp was due to a 13% increase in production volume, even though selling prices remained 4% lower than the same period last year.
• Moving into 2025, the fisheries industry will face unpredictable fluctuations due to U.S. tariff rates on various countries. However, the pangasius industry is expected to grow, supported by increased production and competitive pricing compared to tilapia and domestic Alaskan pollock in the U.S. The shrimp sector is poised to grow, leveraging competitive advantages in value-added shrimp products, while awaiting the final determination on anti-dumping duties in the U.S.
• Gross margins for fisheries companies are expected to improve, benefiting from an estimated 4% YoY decrease in soybean prices, a slight 3-5% YoY increase in selling prices (with a forecasted 3% YoY rise in the USD/VND exchange rate), and an improved supply of raw shrimp and fish due to favorable weather conditions with moderate rainfall