FMC – Short-term headwinds before entering a new growth phase
- Accumulated 10M-2022, FMC recorded a revenue of USD 201 Mn (+13% YoY). However, revenue in September and October started witnessing a deceleration compared to the previous months, driven by weak demand of importing countries amid inflationary pressure. However, we expect Q4/2022 NPAT-MI to only derease 13% YoY on the high base of Q4/2021, at VND 91 Bn (or USD 3.8 Mn), partly contributed by a large FX gain which is attributable to USD appreciation.
- 2022 revenue and NPAT-MI are projected to be VND 6,059 Bn (or USD 253 Mn, +17% YoY) and VND 323 Bn (or USD 13.5 Mn, +21% YoY), respectively. In FY2023, we project that revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 6,249 Bn (or USD 260 Mn, +3% YoY) and VND 356 Bn (or USD 15 Mn, +10% YoY) respectively.
- Using a combination of FCFF (40%) and P/E (60%), We arrive at a fair value of 45,000 VND/share, plus a cash dividend of 2,000 VND/share expected for 2022. This is equivalent to an expected return of 48%, based on the closing price on November 25th, 2022. We recommend to BUY this stock in long-term horizon.
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