GDA - The preparatory phase for a growth cycle
FY2025: Domestic output accounts for a high proportion, negatively impacted by exports• In 2025, GDA faced several difficulties: 1/ Protectionist policies in key export markets (EU, USA); 2/ Steel prices (specifically hot rolled coil – HRC prices as well as galvanized steel prices) did not recover as expected. Consequently, net revenue and NPAT-MI were 15.3 trillion VND (-20% YoY) and 272 billion VND (-20% YoY) respectively, which is– lower than our forecast, and achieving 91% of the company's business plan.
• Regarding project development, according to the company's sharing, the Phu My steel plant (1.2 million tons/year) officially commenced construction in December 2025. The company will invest in phase 1 of the plant (capacity of 300 thousand tons/year) with galvanized steel as the main product line, and may combine research into additional steel products for industrial use, expected to be operational from the second half of 2027.
Outlook 2026-27: A preparatory phase for a growth cycle
• In 2026, the company's sales volume is expected to reach 822 thousand tons (+10% YoY); the main driver continues to come from the domestic market. By 2027, GDA plans to bring the new plant into operation, and we expect the plant to record output in the second half of the year. As a result, the company's sales volume in 2027 could reach 895 thousand tons (+9% YoY, maintaining a consumption market share of 15.8%).
• With a scenario of HRC prices recovering slightly by 3-3.5% YoY in the 2026-2027 period, we expect: 1/ Average selling prices will also record an annual recovery of 3.5%; 2/ Gross profit margin is expected to improve to 7.3% (2026) and 7.8% (2027) respectively – benefiting from inventory investment in the previous period.
• NPAT-MI in the 2026-2027 period is projected to reach 313 billion VND (+15% YoY) and 359 billion VND (+15% YoY), respectively.
View and Recommendation
Despite facing risks from the export market, GDA has successfully shifted orders to the domestic market, thanks to its competitive advantages. In the long term, we believe that the new flat steel plant (phase 01) will support the company's growth. Additionally, the plan to list on Hose (expected in 2026) will enhance the company’s visibility among investors.
Combining the FCFF method and the P/B multiple comparison method with a 50:50 weighting, we set a target price for GDA shares at 21,900 VND/share, corresponding to an expected rate of return of 61% based on the closing price on April 7, 2026. Accordingly, we recommend BUY for GDA, and the company is suitable for a value investment portfolio, as it is currently trading at a significant discount to its existing assets.
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