HDB – Positive PBT results driven by outstanding credit growth
• Consolidated PBT for 9M-2024 reached VND 12.7 trillion (+47% YoY), demonstrating strong growth driven by outstanding credit growth of 16.6% YTD (+38% YoY), outpacing the industry. Consolidated NIM (TTM) expanded significantly by 100bps to 5.9%.• Projected Q4-2024 PBT is expected to reach VND 5 trillion, growing 14% YoY. NII remains the primary growth driver, contributing 91% of total operating income, supported by expected Q4 credit growth of 22% YTD (+5.4% QoQ compared to Q3). Provisioning expenses are anticipated to decline by 19% YoY, with a Q4 credit cost ratio of 0.3% (Q4-2023: 0.4%).
• We forecast HDB's 2024F PBT to reach VND 17.3 trillion, a robust 33% YoY increase, driven by NII growth of +36% YoY. However, Non-NII is expected to decline sharply (NFI and other non-NII decreasing by 34% and 41% YoY, respectively), while Opex are projected to rise by +22% YoY.
• We will provide updates on the 2025F forecast and valuation in the next report.
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