We expect the VN Index to sideway in this month, with short swings in the range of 1,000-1,080. In the downtrend of last month, psychological level of 1,000 supported the market quite well: Selling pressure softened along with bottom-fishing actions have been witnessed around this level. The downside risk in March may arise from (1) a worse development around Real estate bonds default, (2) unexpected change in the dot-plot from the Fed’s March FOMC meeting following an uptick in inflation, (3) and worse-than-expected Q1-2023 earnings. All of which may trigger some washout sessions around 1,000 level amid low liquidity.

However, for the current base case scenario, we expect that the market will hold up relatively well above 1,000, given no significant bad news, while supportive news ahead from the earnings season and the AGMs. Furthermore, we expect the net selling trend of foreign investors to gradually subside as VanEck VNM ETF will restructures its portfolio, increasing the proportion of Vietnamese stocks to 100%, while actively maneged funds may cover their sold positions in February.

A defensive investment strategy continues to be reserved. Short-term investors can use 30-50% of the current stock portfolio for daily trading in order to optimize the investment performance of the overall portfolio. New ideas for the earnings season ahead consist of PVD, PVT and ACB.