JUNE 2025 MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR: ROTATION
In June 2025, the market is likely to continue its favorable trajectory as investor sentiment has been significantly strengthened.A key factor contributing to this optimism is the notable easing of risks related to trade tensions. Specifically, the United States and China have reached a temporary truce after a two-day negotiation in Geneva, providing relief to global investors concerned about the prospects of a trade war and economic recession. Concurrently, Vietnam has made clear progress in its tariff negotiations with the U.S., with many issues either resolved or nearing consensus. Additionally, a significant ruling from the U.S. International Trade Court indicates that President Donald Trump may lack solid legal grounds to impose broad tariffs, bolstering confidence in the economic growth scenario established earlier this year.
At the same time, the Vietnamese government demonstrates strong commitment to promoting growth through robust reform policies. Directions outlined in the Politburo’s Resolutions 57, 59, 66, and 68 have been concretized through policy implementations in May, focusing on improving the business environment, fostering the private sector, accelerating public investment disbursement, and developing science and technology. These measures provide crucial momentum for a new growth phase.
The market is also expected to witness sector rotation, reflecting uneven recovery seen in May. This opens opportunities to select stocks in sectors that have yet to strongly rebound or to rebalance portfolios.
However, investors should remain cautious amid potential risks. Gold prices may continue to rise if tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate as each side seeks advantage in negotiations. The Japanese financial market faces risks from a sudden surge in government bond yields. Additionally, uncertainties remain in the ongoing U.S.–China trade talks, as well as in trade discussions between Vietnam and the U.S. concerning monetary issues, industry subsidies, and product origin regulations.
Regarding investment strategy, the portfolio for this period returns to a balanced allocation approach. We recommend increasing exposure to VPB for higher risk appetite investors as a substitute for VCB, considering reduced market risk and expected fund flow shifts. Moreover, we reduce weighting in utilities and increase allocation in stocks with clearer growth stories. Specifically, PVS and PHR will replace POW and GEG in this report cycle.
For short- and medium-term investors, we highlight HDG (TP: 31,000 VND; +18%), expected to deliver strong business results in 2025, supported by real estate recovery and benefits from the La Nina weather cycle in the energy sector.
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