Vietnam Petroleum supply – demand outlook and Impact on retail fuel companies
• We believe Vietnam’s petroleum market remains in a relatively balanced supply–demand condition, with the Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries together meeting around 70% of domestic demand. However, dependence on imported ethanol and fluctuations in global crude prices remain key risks.• Fuel volume demand is expected to grow steadily by 3 - 4% per year through 2030, supported by economic recovery and transport infrastructure expansion. Nonetheless, growth momentum will likely moderate post-2028 as electric vehicles (EVs) become more common and energy efficiency policies tighten. In addition, the shift toward E10 biofuel could open opportunities for market share expansion for PLX and other leading players, though challenges related to ethanol costs and blending infrastructure investment.
• We also expect the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in Vietnam to have only a limited impact on fuel demand in the short term. Over the long term, the effect will depend on factors like government incentives, charging infrastructure development, and production costs. International experience shows that EV adoption usually varies across markets and does not grow in a straight line.
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