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MWG – Q1-2025 results exceeded expectations driven by a recovery in ICTCE retailing market share

• MWG’s Q1-2025 results surpassed our expectations, delivering net revenue of VND 36,135 bn (+14.8% YoY) and it of VND 1,546 bn (+71.3% YoY), propelled by a significant recovery in ICTCE retail market share through a leaner store network with lower operating and depreciation costs. Two key strategies underpinned this success: (1) Strengthening partnerships with high-potential brands (familyship), and (2) Revamping customer acquisition strategies, adhering to twin principles of “saving customer wallets” through 0% installment plans, enhanced discounts, and price reductions, alongside “upgraded premium after-sales services.”
• The profit potential for MWG stock in the near term hinges on the spearhead of “BHX Central penetration,” as the current market price fully reflects the restored ICTCE retail market share and the company’s efficient financial investment performance.
• Bolstered by the robust recovery in electronics retail market share, we raise MWG’s valuation to VND 68,700 per share (including a VND 1,000 cash dividend per share), derived from a 50:50 blend of long-term DCF and short-term SoTP methodologies.
• We advise investors to closely monitor BHX’s key performance indicators in upcoming quarters, particularly improvements in sales per store (from VND 1.8 bn to above VND 2.0 bn) or net margin (from 0.2% to 0.5-1.0%). Strong/underwhelming BHX results could amplify or dampen short-term profit expectations for MWG’s stock, thereby increasing/decreasing the short-term SoTP method’s contribution (50%) to MWG’s overall valuation, potentially unlocking greater/lesser profit upside.