Analyst Pin-board ANV – Strong increase in share price has partly reflected investors' expectations of earnings growth outlook
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· In 1Q2022, ANV achieved revenue and NPAT of VND 1,219 Bn (or USD 53 Mn; +73% YoY) and VND 207 Bn (or USD 9 Mn, +224% YoY), respectively, completing 25% and 33% of the year’s guidance. Earnings more than tripled as a result of: (1) Strong recovery in demand and shortage of raw material supply supported higher export prices; (2) Fully integrated value chain with the ability to self-supply input materials along with high feed prices not affecting the company yet in Q1 has resulted in a sharp improvement in gross margin by 920 bps YoY. · ANV has set a revenue and PBT guidance of VND 4,900 Bn (+40% YoY) and VND 720 Bn (+377% YoY) for 2022. We believe this guidance is relatively feasible due to: (1) Increasing global whitefish demand, especially the Russia-Ukraine war will help ANV benefit in the EU market; (2) Chinese market's potential to bounce back when the economy reopens to boost pangasius exports to this region; (3) The possibility of re-exporting to the US market; (4) Gross margin may decrease in 2H2022 due to high feed costs, but full-year gross margin will still be high compared to 2021 due to high pangasius ASP; (5) Transportation costs will continue to rise, but gross profit increase will completely offset this costs. · We maintain our target price of VND53,000, representing a 2022 P/E at 10x with corresponding EPS of VND5,294. However, the prospect of a strong recovery in 2022 has partly reflected in the recent stock rally, narrowing the upside potential. Thus, we recommend ACCUMULATE, implying an expected return of 14% (including 2% of cash dividend yield). |
Nam Viet Corporation (Navico) is a Vietnam-based company engaged in seafood processing. It is also involved in aquaculture activities, as well as the processing and export of fresh and value-added pangasius products. The Company also manufactures fish oil, fish powder, biodiesel and other derived products, such as adhesives. It is involved in chromium ore mining and the manufacturing of ferrochrome for steel production activities. In addition, it is engaged in paper packaging manufacture and packaging printing. Other activities include civil and industrial construction as well as fertilizer production.
Viet Dragon Securities belongs to top 20 biggest securities companies in terms of chartered capital in Vietnam. With a qualified, dedicated and professional team, a widespread network, advanced technology, diversified products and services, and good relationship with local and foreign institutions, we provide a wide range of services and products to our clients both individuals and institutions, both local and foreign. We commit to provide our clients with promising investment opportunities and a comprehensive and professional financial investment services.
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