Oil Gas sector – High oil price thanks to OPEC+ cut
- OPEC+ announced a cut of 1.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May and will maintain the cut until the end of 2023. That combined with Russia's subsequent announcement of a 0.5 mbpd cut make the group's total output cut of 1.6 mbpd. Meanwhile, shale oil supply has only increased by 0.4 mbpd since the end of 2022.
- China is likely to be the global oil demand driver after the country has reopened. This country’s demand will gradually improve quarter by quarter from 2Q2023 and averagely increase by 0.7-0.9 mbpd in 2023. Totally, the world oil demand will increase by 2 – 2.3 mbpd.
- Global demand is forecast to exceed pre-pandemic levels while supply is being cut sharply by the OPEC+. Accordingly, the IEA concerns that the market will face a supply shortage in the second half of 2023. The average price of Brent oil forecast in 2023 will be over USD 90/barrel but can not be higher than USD 100/barrel.
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