·         Q3 revenue grew 16% QoQ to VND 522 bn while NPAT-MI surged 90% QoQ to VND 145 bn, supported mostly by revenue from industrial park (IP) leasing, versus no revenue from IP in Q2.

·         9M2021 revenue posted VND 1,253 bn (+44% YoY) and NPAT-MI VND 305 bn (-57% YoY). Revenue growth came from main business segments, including rubber and IP. The plummet in the bottom line was the result of no compensation payment for land use right conversion, versus VND 456 bn compensation payment received in 9M2020 for Nam Tan Uyen 2 Expansion project (NTC3).

·         Land use right compensation of VSIP 3 is likely to be received in Q2/2022.

·         Given the actual result of the IP segment better than our expectation, we change our forecast for revenue and NPAT-MI of 2021 to VND 2,161 bn (+32% YoY) and VND 487 bn (-55% YoY). The 2022 forecast has also been adjusted down in revenue (VND 2,226 bn, +3%YoY) and NPAT-MI (VND 1,190 bn, +144% YoY) as we think the profit margin of the rubber segment will contract due to higher input prices and Tan Lap 1 IP will be open for leasing later than our old forecast. EPS for 2021 and 2022 are VND 2,937/share and VND 7,173/share, equivalent to P/E forward 2021 and 2022 of 25x and 10x, based on the closing price of Nov 19, 2021, while TTM P/E is 15x.

·         We raise our target price for PHR from VND 61,300/share to VND 74,000/share to reflect the better-than-expected result of the IP segment as well as the rubber segment. Together with an expected cash dividend of VND 1,500/share in the next 12 months, this translates to an upside of 2%, equivalent to a NEUTRAL recommendation.