Real Estate Market 9M2024 – Supply Balance Expectations
• In Q3/2204, condos accounted for nearly 70% of the new supply for sale, with most of them coming from the high-end and luxury segments (selling price over VND 50 mn/ m2 for condo), in which the Hanoi condos market continued to record positive signals in terms of both supply and absorption.• Primary selling prices continued to maintain an upward momentum, the Hanoi market was close to VND 64 mn/m2 (+9%QoQ, +26%YoY), while the Ho Chi Minh City market increased slightly and reached 66 million VND/m2 (+4%QoQ, +8%YoY). We believe that the upward trend in prices (in both primary and secondary markets) will continue in Q4/2024 and the first half of 2025, implying that the demand for condos remains high.
• We expect the supply constraints of Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City will soon be dismantled with changes in new laws and mechanisms: 1/ piloting the expansion of land for commercial housing to remove the supply to the market, 2/ announcing a new land price list for Ho Chi Minh City, accelerate the process of compensation and calculation of land use levy for projects with legal problems. Some listed investors have projects expected to open for sale in Q4/2024, including: KDH (Foresta), NLG (Mizuki Park, Nam Long Can Tho), PDR (NTMK, Bac Ha Thanh).
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