Seaport – The period of rapid growth is over and unpredictable factors await
• In September 2024, commercial activity contracted compared to the previous month. The estimated value of seaborne container imports and exports reached USD 19 billion (+15% YoY) and USD 13 billion (+18% YoY), respectively. For 9M2024, the value of seaborne container imports and exports reached USD 164 billion (+14% YoY) and USD 110 billion (+16% YoY), respectively.• Compared to the previous month, the throughput at both Hai Phong and Vung Tau ports contracted in September 2024, in line with the trade flows. Total throughput in these two regions decreased by 10% MoM and 12% MoM, respectively, yet still showed positive growth of 7% YoY and 33% YoY, reaching 602 thousand TEUs and 548 thousand TEUs, respectively. This decline reflects an annual pattern typical of the industry's peak season. The peak season falls between June and August, accounting for 27% of the value and volume of seaborne container imports and exports.
• Cargo clearance is forecast to slow down in Q4-FY24 but should still maintain positive growth compared to the same period last year. We expect demand for non-essential goods to improve more markedly in 2H2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which ease debt burdens and increase real purchasing power for US consumers.
• The outlook for global trade in 2025 remains clouded by "lingering" risks that could skew forecasts, including the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
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