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Vietnam’s domestic gas supply outlook and LNG’s increasing contribution to energy security

• We observe that Vietnam’s gas demand is rising sharply, primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for 70% of total gas consumption. According to Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), gas-fired power capacity is expected to reach 37,454 MW by 2030 - 4.3 times higher than at end-2024. Accordingly, we believe nationwide gas demand will grow in tandem, reflecting ongoing industrialization and the need to enhance grid stability.
• Alongside strong demand growth, domestic gas supply in Vietnam is declining as the country’s core gas fields mature and natural reserves deplete. Major basins such as Nam Con Son, Cuu Long, and PM3–CAA have all shown falling output. For the 2026–2030 period, we expect additional contributions from new projects including Block B – O Mon, Su Tu Trang 2B, and Ca Voi Xanh, which together could add 13–15 bcm/year.
• Furthermore, given declining domestic supply and the fact that new gas projects will take time to come online, we believe LNG will remain an essential supply source both in the near term and long term. LNG demand in 2030 is projected at 10–13 million tonnes per year, sufficient to offset most of the domestic shortfall.