Report
Jakub Caithaml ...
  • Peter Palovic

WOOD Flash – EMEA airlines: 12M22 traffic – demand holding up well, outlook encouraging for early-2023

A rollercoaster year, 2022 saw aviation restart in EMEA, after the pandemic restrictions. At the same time, the airlines were navigating multiple challenges: the impact of the war and air-space closures; expensive oil, exacerbated by record-wide cracks; a strong dollar; inflationary pressures; and a wide-ranging industry disruption, linked to under-staffed ATC and airports. Despite these headwinds, the capacity discipline from the majors, combined with robust pent-up demand for travel, drove fares well above the pre-pandemic levels. Still, concerns about the weaker economy ahead and its impact on demand for flying weighed on the sector and the share prices for a good part of the year. 4Q22 saw the momentum turn, as the demand and fares held up much better than expected during the start of the shoulder season, driving a rally in EMEA aviation stocks, which extended into the first few weeks of 2023E. Feedback from all the airlines under our coverage remains positive, pointing to encouraging booking trends even in January and February, echoing recent comments from Ryanair. However, following the rally, to justify further near-term upside, we may need to see upward revisions of the consensus 2023E earnings, something on which we still have low visibility at this point.
Underlyings
Aegean Airlines SA

Aegean Airlines is an airline carrier based in Greece. Co. is engaged in aviation transportation, providing services that concern the transportation of passengers and commodities in the sector of public aviation transportation inside and outside Greece, conducting scheduled and unscheduled flights. Co. provides full service, premium quality short and medium haul services. Co. maintains a network of 145 destinations, 111 international in 45 countries and 34 domestic destinations. Co. is a member of global airline network, the Star Alliance network.

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi AS

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi is a low-cost airline group based in Turkey. Co. provides reasonably-priced transportation opportunities on point-to-point basis in short and medium range flight lines on its domestic and international network. Co. primarily provides transportation opportunities from its main hub in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport, but also offers scheduled flights from other domestic hubs, primarily in Adana, Antalya and Izmir. Co.'s fleet is composed of 49 airplanes in total. Co.'s flight network consists of 76 locations (45 abroad and 31 domestic flight locations in 30 countries). Co. also provides cargo services and provides various training services.

Turk Hava Yollari A.O.

Turk Hava Yollari is engaged in the airline industry with the airline flying to 103 destinations, throughout Turkey and internationally. As of the year end, Co. maintains 66 aircrafts with a total seat capacity of 10,672, and leases a A300-200 cargo aircraft. Co. has various services for their customers which include: various ways of checking in and on-line ticket sales.

Wizz Air Holdings Plc

Wizz Air Holding is a European airline. As of Mar 31 2017, Co. provided more than 500 routes from 28 bases, connecting 141 destinations across 42 countries. Co. has two reportable segments: the airline and the tour operator business units, marketed under the Wizz Air and Wizz Tours brand names, respectively. Wizz Air sells flight tickets and related services to external customers and, to an extent, to Wizz Tours. Wizz Tours sells travel packages to external customers covering the network of Wizz Air.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Jakub Caithaml

Peter Palovic

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