WOOD Flash - CTP: 2025 CMD takeaways
Over the past two days, CTP held a CMD in and around Wuppertal, Germany. The company specified its near-term expansion targets, while increasing its long-term growth ambitions materially. It is targeting doubling its size by 2030E, from just under 15m sqm by end-2025, to 30m sqm by 2030E. This marks an ambitious acceleration from what was already industry-leading growth. Between 2020 and 2025E, CTP is set to grow its standing portfolio from 5.9m sqm to c.14.6-14.9m sqm GLA, or by c.9m sqm over the past 5Y. The guidance implies that the 2026-30E period should see it expand its portfolio by another 15m sqm. Between 2027-30E, CTP is targeting growth of 3.0-3.5m sqm annually, double its recent run-rate. The key question, in our view, is whether the markets where CTP operates can support this level of growth, or whether it could lead to a dilution in the yield on cost (YoC) that it is able to generate. Inorganic growth and expansion into new markets (like Vietnam) could boost the portfolio size and help it to achieve its ambitious decade-end target, but carries risks related to the price paid, asset quality and execution in new markets.
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