Elbit Systems: HOLD, on valuation grounds (downgraded to HOLD)
Following Elbit Systems’ (Elbit) 9M24 results, we have re-evaluated the company’s catalysts outlook over the next 6-12M and revised our earnings estimates, resulting in a 22% higher 12M price target (PT) of USD 252.2/share, offering no upside potential at the current stock price levels. Management’s execution was strong in 9M24, on the back of robust contract wins, elevating Elbit’s orderbook to a record-high USD 22.1bn (+33% yoy and tantamount to 3.3 years of revenue visibility), while the top-line growth accelerated (+13% in 9M24, vs. 8% in FY23). The 9M24 non-GAAP operating margin (8%) was stable yoy and the company posted a 25% yoy higher NI in 9M24. While we are confident that Elbit should, comfortably, surpass management’s revenue target of USD 7bn in 2025E, we still see some challenges for its 10% non-GAAP operating margin target for 2026E, given the continued supply disruptions (the Gaza war and the Red Sea conflict) and the likelihood of a potential stronger NIS vs. the USD (the company’s functional currency) in 2025-26E. We have downgraded our rating to HOLD (from Buy).Elbit Systems is an international high technology company engaged primarily in the defense and homeland security. Co. focuses in the areas of C4I systems, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, network centric information systems, intelligence gathering systems, border and perimeter security systems, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), remote controlled systems, cyber-defense systems, space and satellite based defense capabilities and homeland security solutions. Co.'s systems and products are installed on new platforms, and Co. also performs comprehensive platform modernization programs. Co. also provides a range of support services.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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