WOOD Flash – Norilsk Nickel: 2H18 financial results - EBITDA and FCF above consensus, implying full-year dividend of 10.7%
Norilsk announced its 2H18 financial results this morning. EBITDA was 7% above consensus, rising 2% hoh off revenues which beat consensus by 1% (flat hoh). Net income missed consensus by 22% due to a non-cash USD 576m FX loss, which is unlikely to have a negative impact on the share price. FCF beat consensus by 8%, due to higher EBITDA and lower capex than guided (10% below consensus). Net debt came in 5% below Bloomberg consensus, with ND/EBITDA now 1.1x. This should allow Norilsk to continue to pay 60% of EBITDA as a dividend, implying USD 2.36/GDR for the full year, a 10.7% yield, although no announcement has been made yet. Overall, we see these results as slightly positive for the share price.Norilsk has been on a great run in recent weeks, which is likely to continue on the momentum of recent statements by President Trump, which suggest an easing of trade tensions between the US and China. Palladium prices are close to USD 1,500/oz, well above our last published forecasts, and the RUB is weaker, although nickel and copper prices remain below our estimates. This suggests that our 2019E forecasts are relatively conservative. We see slight downside to our existing price target, but spot metals price levels justify the current valuation, in our view. Dividend yields in excess of 10% will continue if spot prices prevail.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.