HEADLINES: • Romanian politics: early elections becoming less of a likely scenario NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: tax investigation - potential negative impact of PLN 62.6m on consolidated results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey - too much momentum • Romgaz: 4Q19 results - European market catches up finally • Polish banks: PFSA wants banks to make consistent provisions against FX mortgage litigation risk NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 2019 effective tax rate at 9.4% post IP Box ...
EME Equity Market – January 2020 Market performance – Hungarian BUX the weakest performer in January, by far. While the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe Index lost 0.6% in EUR terms and 2.3% in LCU terms in January, the Hungarian BUX was down 8.3% in EUR terms and 6.5% in HUF terms. The Polish WIG20 also fell quite substantially, -4.9% in EUR terms and -3.9% in PLN terms; followed by Prague’s PX Index, which dropped 3.1% in EUR terms and -3.9% in CZK terms. While the MOEX Index lost 0.8% in EU...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: recovery - part one in place, three more to go • Bank Millennium: posts PLN 27m of net profit; underlying results much better than expected NEUTRAL • PKO BP: higher hit on FX mortgage and early consumer loan repayments than our initial take NEGATIVE • Akbank: 4Q19 results review NEGATIVE • OPAP: decision to repay early a EUR 200m bond issued in 2017 • Kety: amended 2019E forecasts imply significant beat vs. 4Q19 preliminary figures POSITIVE • Ten ...
Norilsk released its 4Q19 trading update today (31 January). The production of nickel and copper were up by 8% and 5% qoq, respectively, 4% and 2% above our estimates; while palladium and platinum production were down by 7% and 9%, respectively, 22% and 25% above our forecasts. All metals’ 12M19 production were in line (slightly above for palladium and platinum) with the annual guidance. We view these results as a small positive for the share price.
EME Equity Market – November 2019 Market performance – the weakest performance in November was recorded by the Polish WIG20 Index, in both EUR- and PLN-terms (-2.9% mom and -1.6% mom, respectively). While the MSCI Index lost 0.4% in local currency terms, it gained 0.8% in EUR terms. With the exception of Poland, all the other indices recorded a positive performance, with the Turkish ISE30 gaining 8.9% (EUR terms) over the month. The BET Index was the second-best performer, increasing by 3.2%...
HEADLINES: • Norilsk Nickel: growth over dividends (downgraded to HOLD) • Alpha Bank: transformational plan on the right track POSITIVE • Mobile TeleSystems: 3Q19 - strong set of results, with a 5% beat on OIBDA vs. our forecasts POSITIVE • Fourlis: 3Q19 review - solid results, with Intersport driving growth • Ciech: 3Q19 adjusted EBITDA in line with expectations, miss on EBIT amid impairment loss NEUTRAL • Graphisoft Park: to pay a special dividend or launch a buyback POSITIVE â€...
Norilsk Nickel held its 2019 Capital Markets Day (CMD) on 18 November. Medium-term capex guidance was increased meaningfully, which is likely to result in higher leverage in the medium term and lower dividend payouts, under the existing policy, from 2024E. Due mainly to higher capex, we lower our price target (PT) by 2%, to USD 28.1/GDR. We expect Norilsk to continue to pay c.11% dividend yields for the next few years. However, with nickel falling 18% since mid-September, the stock trading close...
HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: let's play it again... (stays BUY) • LPP: 3Q broadly in line with prelims; FY19E gross margin guidance cut by 1ppt • Wirtualna Polska: decent 3Q19 results, with adjusted EBITDA ex.IFRS 16 up 17% yoy POSITIVE • Norilsk Nickel: Capital Markets Day - long-term production growth NEGATIVE • PKO BP: claims technological leadership in banking • Orange PL: starts negotiations with trade unions on voluntary redundancies for 2020-21E NEUTRAL • OMV: agrees to ...
Norilsk hosted its 2019 CMD today (18 November), in which it laid out its long-term ambitions out to 2030E, which include: 15-30% increases in nickel output; 20-40% in copper; and 30-95% in PGMs. Capex should increase meaningfully, however, to USD 3.5-4bn p.a. in the mid-2020s (without including Arctic Palladium). This is likely to lead to lower dividend payouts without further strength in metals prices, in our view. On the positive side, short-term capex guidance has decreased so we do not expe...
EME Equity Market – October 2019 Market performance – ISE30 index the worst performer among our followed indices, down 10.1% in EUR terms and 7% in local currency terms. The MSCI EME index gained 3.7%, but added 6% in local currency terms. All our followed indices were in the black, bar the BET (-0.8% in EUR) and ISE30 indices (-10.1% in EUR). The BUX Index gained the most (5.9%), followed by MOEX (4.3%) and WSE (3.6%; all performance figures in EUR terms). Prague was also up in October (+1....
HEADLINES: • Sberbank: 3Q19 results review - still underwhelming, management is more positive on 4Q NEUTRAL • Turk Telekom: 3Q19 earnings beat triggers guidance upgrade • Turkcell: 3Q19 results - numbers in line, risk of new taxes in 2020 • O2 Czech Republic: 3Q19 - lower-than-expected sales, but beat on EBITDA • MMK: 3Q19 results - dividend beats our estimate by 60% on FCF beat • Norilsk Nickel: 3Q19 trading update - well on track to meet guidance • Ford Otosan: 3Q19 confere...
Norilsk released its 3Q19 trading update this morning (31 October). Production of all metals are up 6-8% yoy after the first nine months of 2019, and remain well on track to meet the 2019E guidance, which was reiterated by management. 3Q19 nickel production was up 7% qoq/+8% yoy and copper production was down 3% qoq/flat yoy. Palladium production fell 6% qoq, but rose 3% yoy, while platinum production was down 11% qoq and 8% yoy. The only negative we see is that Chita gold production is below th...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 3Q19 results - 2.5% beat vs. consensus on EBITDAaL POSITIVE • Norilsk Nickel: Indonesia brings forward nickel ore export ban, with immediate effect POSITIVE • PGNiG: 3Q19E estimates - weaker than expected • Bank Millennium: additional colour after the 3Q19 results • Polish telecoms: memorandum on joint 5G network signed by T-Mobile, Orange, CPS Exatel and PFR POSITIVE • Alior Bank: CEO's interview with Puls Biznesu NEUTRAL • Novatek: expecting weak 3Q1...
EME Equity Market – September 2019 Market performance – all markets in the black, with Turkey standing out. In September, the MSCI EME index expanded by 3.8% mom. The Turkish ISE30 stood out among its peers, rising by 14.1% mom, vs. losing 10.8% in August. Moscow’s index was the second-best performer, up 4.0% mom, recovering from the 3.8% loss seen in the previous month. Bucharest’s BET index ended September with a gain of 3.3%, while Warsaw’s WIG20 rose by 2.0%, vs. its 8.3% loss in A...
HEADLINES: • Norilsk Nickel: nickel bull market on Indonesian ore ban (upgraded to BUY) • NLB Group: weak 2Q19 results NEGATIVE • Tauron: weak 2Q19 EBITDA, in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Kruk: additional takeaways from meeting
With the Indonesian government planning to accelerate a ban on raw ore exports to the end of 2019, vs. 2022 previously, the news has shocked the nickel market, with prices up c.50% since June. With the potential to remove nearly 10% of global supply almost overnight, the nickel market will move into a large deficit, in our view, justifying high prices close to current spot in the next couple of years, before processing capacity catches up. Beyond 2022, EV demand should support nickel prices. Wit...
EME Equity Market – August 2019 Market performance – pressure on all markets, only the BET flattish. The MSCI EME contracted by 4.9% mom in August, while the ASE index fell by 3.5% and Moscow’s index dropped by 3.8%. Bucharest’s BET index was the only one to rise, if only marginally, by 0.4% mom. The worst performer was Turkey’s ISE30, losing 10.8% mom, while the WIG20 index was down 8.3% mom, the BUX index dropped by 4.1% mom, and Prague’s PX index fell by 2.8% mom.
Since 2Q19, investors have started acquiring treasury bonds massively, pushing 30% of the yields worldwide into negative territory. Moreover, we believe that there are good arguments (geopolitical tensions, central banks becoming even more dovish) to suggest that this situation may persist in the long term. Also, as the yield hunting may continue, we believe that selected high dividend yielding stocks could offer an interesting alternative to bonds, and we see the EME region as a great place for...
HEADLINES: • KGHM: 2Q19 financial results - in line with PAP consensus and FCF turns positive NEUTRAL • Mobile TeleSystems: 2Q19 results - OIBDA in line with consensus, 2019E guidance increased POSITIVE • Mobile TeleSystems: key takeaways from 2Q19 earnings call NEUTRAL • Italy macro: political crisis can be safely ignored • Eurocash: sales in small stores up only 6.2% yoy in July NEGATIVE • Norilsk Nickel: 1H19 - in line with consensus on EBITDA, lower-than-expected capex & 6% inte...
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