reports
- Dmitry Vlasov
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Baltic Classifieds Group: the perfect storm cannot last forever (stays...
We maintain our BUY rating on Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG), with a revised 12-month price target (PT) of GBp 285, representing upside potential of 43% from the current price. Over the past six months, BCG has been hit by a perfect storm of events, including: a slower Estonian automotive market recovery than anticipated; subdued 1H26 Jobs & Services segment revenue growth; and emerging AI risks. BCG’s shares have plummeted 45% since June 2025, significantly underperforming its closest European ...
- Atinc Ozkan
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Cyfrowy Polsat: structural headwinds ahead (downgraded to SELL)
We have downgraded our rating on Cyfrowy Polsat (CPS) to SELL (from Hold) and cut our price target (PT) to PLN 11.86/share (from PLN 15.42), implying 12% downside potential. We believe that the positive short-term triggers in CPS’ story have materialised already (succession completion, interest rates cuts supporting the FCF), while the weak 4Q25 results and 2026E outlook (we expect further declines in the telecoms segment) could fuel drops. Most importantly, in the long term, we see structural h...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – Orange Polska: acquires Nexera jointly with APG
On 19 December, Orange Polska (OPL) announced that it has signed a preliminary agreement to acquire, jointly with APG, Nexera Holding sp. z o.o., one of the leading fibercos in Poland, in order to enlarge its JV Światłowód Inwestycje by 800,000 households, located mainly in small towns and rural areas, with high saturation prospects. There are around 280,000 retail customers on Nexera’s network who are direct customers of retail telecoms operators (including OPL).
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – cyber_Folks: acquires PrestaShop for EUR 55m
Today (11 December), cyber_Folks (CBF) announced that it will acquire PrestaShop for EUR 55m. The deal will be executed in cooperation with Sylius’ owners – cyber_Folks will acquire a 79% stake in the newly created entity (cyber_Pixel) for the abovementioned EUR 55m (finance with CBF’s own cash), while the Sylius’ owners 21% for the contribution of a 100% stake in Sylius and BitBag.
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – 4iG: 3Q25 results review – 18% yoy increase in reported E...
On Friday (28 November), 4iG reported its 3Q25 results, with sales of HUF 187.3bn (up 4% yoy, 2% above our estimate), EBITDA of HUF 70.1bn (up 18% yoy, 6% above our estimate) and net profit of HUF 1.3bn (vs. the HUF 6.0bn net loss in 3Q24 and our HUF 0.6bn net profit forecast). The beat vs. our estimates on the EBITDA and the bottom line was due to the stronger-than-expected top line and lower D&A than we assumed, and we see the results as positive. We also appreciate the company’s gradual delev...
- George Grigoriou
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
OTE: multiple tailwinds supporting the equity story (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY on OTE and increase our price target (PT) to EUR 23.0 (from EUR 20.3), implying 37% upside potential. Since our previous report on the company (October 2024), we have recognised multiple tailwinds reinforcing OTE’s equity story and our positive view on the name, including: 1) the finalisation of the Telekom Romania sale, which supports the FCF and dividend outlooks materially; 2) the implementation of CPI-related price increases, and the easing competitive pressure in the mo...
- Dmitry Vlasov
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Elm: clarity is on its way (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY on Elm, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 1,154, which offers 39% upside. The company’s share price has been under pressure this year, down 26% ytd on the back of the lack of clarity surrounding the Thiqah deal and reduced visibility among the quarters. Despite its weaker-than-expected 3Q25 results, Elm has reiterated its 2025E revenue growth guidance of 33-35%. Taking into account the strong seasonality of 4Q25E for both Thiqah and Elm, as well as the ramp-up of 1...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – OTE: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA 1% up yoy, in ...
OTE has reported a solid set of 3Q25 results, with the Greek sales up 5% yoy, to EUR 874m (2% above our forecast) and the Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 375m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 8% yoy, to EUR 468m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 13.6% yoy, a 1.3% increase yoy in retail sales and 4.2% yoy growth in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment remained flat, at EUR 342m, as the 2.7% increase in retail sales was offset by a 15% yoy dr...
- Dmitry Vlasov
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Baltic Classifieds Group: still structurally attractive (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY on Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG), with a revised 12-month price target (PT) of GBp 351 (from GBp 386), representing upside potential of 17% from the current price. The Estonian market is proving to be tougher than expected. The new car tax continues to hold back demand, and the early signs of a recovery have stalled, which has had a negative impact on Auto 24’s revenues. Following this development, we have lowered our revenues and EBITDA estimates, but argue that the long-te...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – 4iG: 2Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported E...
This morning (29 August), 4iG reported its 2Q25 results, with sales of HUF 179.4bn (up 5% yoy, in line with our estimate), EBITDA of HUF 62.4bn (up 11% yoy, 3% above our estimate) and a net loss of HUF 10.3bn (vs. the HUF 11.5bn net loss in 2Q24 and our PLN 5.8m net loss forecast). The miss vs. our estimate on the bottom line resulted from higher-than-expected D&A, which came in at HUF 49.0bn (6% above our estimate) and higher minorities than we assumed. The lower yoy net loss was driven primari...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Asseco Poland: unjustifiably expensive (downgraded to SELL)
We have downgraded Asseco Poland (ACP) to SELL (from Hold) and increased our price target (PT) to PLN 130.5 (from PLN 102.5), implying 32% downside potential. ACP’s stock price has rallied over 100% ytd, driven primarily by the sale of its treasury shares to Constellation Software, a strategic investor with an impressively strong M&A track record, which has drawn the attention of a new group of investors to Asseco Poland, we believe. However, we see very limited synergies (which, given no consol...
- Dmitry Vlasov
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Solutions by STC: balance of risks to the upside (upgraded to BUY)
We have upgraded Solutions by STC (Solutions) to BUY (from Hold), with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 322, offering upside potential of 29%. With the stock down 24% over the past six months, and the company maintaining its 2025E revenue growth guidance, which implies a revenue acceleration in 2H25E, we see the current correction as an attractive buying opportunity. We continue to like Solutions for its market-leading position, and for being the “go to” IT name in Saudi Arabia. With a pr...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
CD Projekt: opening the next chapter (upgraded to BUY)
We have upgraded CD Projekt (CDR) to BUY (from Sell), and increased our 12M price target (PT) to PLN 289 (from PLN 157), which offers 17% potential upside. So far, CDR has proven successful in filling the “gap” years with surprising content and attractive newsflow. With a sound performance from the back catalogue and some new, undisclosed projects, we believe that CDR could continue this way through to 2027E, when we assume The Witcher 4 release, opening a new chapter. The supportive newsflow ar...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – OTE: 2Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA 1% up yoy, in ...
OTE has reported an uninspiring set of 2Q25 results, with sales flat yoy, at EUR 913m (in line with our forecast) and the adjusted EBITDA up 1% yoy, to EUR 349m (in line with our estimate), due to Greek segment expansion offsetting the 67% yoy decline in the Romanian segment operating result. We see OTE’s 2Q25 results as neutral, as the adjusted EBITDA was in line with our expectations, while the company reiterated its 2025E outlook. The miss on the bottom line was driven primarily by the write-...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
DataWalk: returning like a phoenix from the ashes (HOLD)
We update our rating on DataWalk to a HOLD (previously Under Review), and set our new price target (PT) at PLN 116.0/share. Since the beginning of 2024, DataWalk has managed to secure some large contracts (Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Amazon and Rabobank) and a long-term strategic partner (the Raise fund), which should support the company in the event of liquidity needs. These achievements have been discounted by the market already – DataWalk’s share price is up 84% in the LTM. Our valuation method...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
cyber_Folks: e-commerce first – a new chapter begins (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY rating on cyber_Folks (CBF) and raise our price target (PT) to PLN 219.1/share (vs. PLN 177.2/share previously), implying 29% upside. Despite the 35% share price rally since our initiation (June 2024), we continue to like cyber_Folks, due to its compelling growth story – we believe that the acquisition of Shoper is just the beginning of cyber_Folks’ expansion into the CEE e-commerce business. We expect the company to deliver an outstanding 2024-27E pro-forma adjusted EBITDA ...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Vercom: solid growth, boosted potentially by M&A (upgraded to BUY)
We have upgraded our rating on Vercom to BUY (from Hold), and raised our price target (PT) to PLN 150.5/share (vs. PLN 139.8/share previously). We see Vercom as an outstanding growth story, based on its healthy organic global customer base expansion. On our forecasts, the company should deliver a 2024-27E adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 22% (broadly in line with the company’s targets, included in the incentive scheme) and a net income CAGR of 26%, driven by top-line growth, profitability improvements an...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Shoper: new investor, new opportunities (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on Shoper. Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 59.1 (vs. PLN 52.6 previously) offers 19% potential upside. We believe that the new investor brings new opportunities. Our expectations of the synergies for Shoper move our 12M DCF valuation from PLN 55.9 to PLN 62.5/share (a 12% addition). Given the higher focus on higher-margin products, operating leverage and synergies, we forecast a solid three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 23%. That places Shoper 8ppts above Allegro’s...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – 4iG: 1Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported E...
On Friday (30 May), 4iG reported its 1Q25 results, with sales of HUF 171.5bn (up 9% yoy, 4% below our estimate), EBITDA of HUF 60.1bn (up 11% yoy, in line with our estimate) and a net loss of HUF 3.7bn (vs. the HUF 16.7bn net loss in 1Q24 and our PLN 0.3m net loss forecast). The miss vs. our estimate on the bottom line resulted from higher-than-expected income tax, which came in at HUF 5.3bn. The lower yoy net loss was driven partially by the gain on FX of HUF 4.8bn recorded in 1Q25 (vs. the HUF...
- Dmitry Vlasov
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on Gentoo Media (Gentoo), but cut our 12M price target (PT) to SEK 26.2 (from SEK 35.5), implying c.89% upside. The share price took a major hit after the disappointing 1Q25 results, which have led to a significant reduction in our estimates. In our view, Gentoo experienced a perfect storm, suffering significantly from changes in Brazilian regulations, elevated G&A costs and the discontinuation of unprofitable campaigns. We believe a recovery is on the horizon, with re...
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