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Hai Thanh Le Phuong

GDP - 2019 Q3 GDP Growth Continues At Elevated Pace

Economic growth in Q3 rose to 5.0% y-o-y, up from 4.9% in Q2, preliminary figures by the KSH showed today. This growth rate exceeds the Bloomberg consensus of 4.6%. Detailed figures are expected on 29 November. Working-day adjusted y-o-y figure was 4.8%, already reflecting some slowdown from the beginning of the year, compatible with a long-expected deceleration. gdp growth (same quarter in previous year = 100) Source: CSO, Concorde KSH said that most sectors contributed to the stellar performance (they did not mention agriculture and public services). Germany, the largest trading partner ...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Masterplast - Remarkable Results On Hungary, EBITDA Margin Improves Further

Masterplast – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Accumulate (unch.) Target price (12M): Under Revision (unch.)   Masterplast reported revenues came strong in the seasonally strongest quarter, up by 10.8% y-o-y to EUR 31.4 mln. EBITDA came to EUR 2.6 mln, up by 21% y-o-y, as a result of higher revenues and lower other OPEX. EBITDA margin also improved accordingly to 8.4% from 7.8%. Revenues improved y-o-y by 10.8% on the back of strong Hungary (which contains partial contribution from newly acquired T-cell). Hungarian sales increased 31.9% y-o-y despite the mild deceleration in th...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Raiffeisen - In Line Results, Improving NIM, NII Are Key Positives

RBI – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): EUR 30.0 (unch.)   RBI reported net income came to EUR 303 mln in the third quarter, in line with analyst estimates of EUR 305 mln. In the first 9M, RBI posted a return on equity of 10.4%, down from 14.4% a year ago, but this was attributed to less risk provision reversals, weaker net trading and hedge accounting results. The other net operating line also included provisions for Romanian settlement in the quarter to the tune of EUR 39 mln. Net interest income improved on a quarterly basis by 3.1% and y-o-y ...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

TLV - Very Strong Q3 Results

TLV – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): RON 2.5 (unch.)   Banca Transilvania reported net income in the first 9M of 2019 came to RON 1.6 bln, implying a net profit of RON 626 mln vs our forecast of RON 400 mln in Q3. Better than expected results stemmed from risk provisioning as there was a release as well as better fees and other non-interest income (Net F&C, trading and profit from AfS). On a quarterly basis, NII was rather flattish on higher interest expenses and margins as a result also came down by 20bps. Cost-to-income remained under contr...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

BVB - Strong Q3 Results On Financial Income And Trading Volumes

BVB - Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): RON 34.0 (unch.) BVB reported good results in the third quarter, up by 145% y-o-y and q-o-q. Better results stemmed mainly from significantly higher financial income. The remarkable growth in financial income was attributed to exchange rates impact of the EURRON (unrealized). Trading revenues were down by 0.7% q-o-q but up y-o-y by 21.0%. Despite q-o-q weaker revenues, margins actually improved by 1bps. Y-o-y development was mainly attributed to larger trading value of equities (+22.7% y-o-y). The Company’s net inc...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

CPI - October CPI – Core Indicators Edge Up

October inflation was 2.9%, up 0.1pps from a month earlier. Core inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in September. HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION (YOY) Source: CSO, Concorde The headline inflation rose mainly as core prices rose even more. Fuel and administered prices had exerted a negative impact on the headline. HEADLINE AND UNDERLYING INFLATION (YOY) Source: MNB The central bank’s underlying inflation indicators have fared mixed, demand sensitive and net core literally eliminating the reduction in the underlying inflation trend in summer months, while sticky price inflation dropped somewhat...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

OTP Bank - Spectacular Q3 Results

  Summary   Better than expected results, cons. HUF 104.8 bln, Concorde HUF 118.5 bln, actual HUF 131.6 bln net profit also better, HUF 110.5 bln vs. cons HUF 102.4 bln and Concorde HUF 108.5 bln Higher results on one-off HUF 21.4 related to acquisitions, strong NII, Net F&C and lower costs NIM remains subdued, but volumes compensate Loan growth stellar across countries, Hungary strong on baby loans Mgmt changed few points in guidance, but nothing that was not anticipated before Spectacular results, strong fundamentals, but recent rally could fade off       OTP - Instant Earn...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

BRD - BRD posts solid Q3, generous capital return expected to continue - Instant Earnings Comment from Concorde Ltd. (Hungary)

BRD - Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): RON 16.1 (unch.) BRD reported net income came to RON 439 mln in the third quarter, better than our projection of RON 389 mln as a result of risk cost releases. Net interest income increased 3.9% q-o-q and 6.5% y-o-y to RON 552 mln on the back of further margin expansion while net F&C also increased nicely by 5.8% q-o-q and 2.4% y-o-y, respectively. Operating result declined by 1.6% q-o-q, amidst lower net trading results while costs increased 5.7% q-o-q and 4.4% y-o-y which development is under control give...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Erste - Basically In Line Results, Trends Remain Robust

Erste - Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Accumulate (unch.) Target price (12M): EUR 37.3 (unch.) Erste reported EUR 491 mln profit in the third quarter, up 8.2% y-o-y and up 38.4% q-o-q (quarterly there was a negative one-off in Romania thus Q3 was actually lower on less net trading income and provision write-backs). This figure is slightly above consensus estimate of EUR 480 mln (+2.3%) and mainly in line with our EUR 494 mln estimate. On the positive side, NII and Net F&C improved 1.6% and 2.3% q-o-q, respectively. Net interest income grew, driven by Austrian NII thanks to m...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Masterplast - Sound Q2 despite lower steam in growth - Instant Earnings Comment from Concorde Ltd. (Hungary)

  Masterplast - Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation: Accumulate (unch.) Target price (12M): Under revision (prev. 740) Masterplast reported EBITDA came to EUR 2.4 mln in the seasonally strong quarter, up 16.5% compared to the same period of last year, driven by revenues (+6.2%) and higher other operating income. While revenues remained solid, this was somewhat under the budget according to the Company”s comment due to bad weather conditions, lower production in Serbia and decline in packaging materials demand. Due to increasing commercial margins, EBITDA margin also improved to 8.4%...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

OTP Bank - Stronger And Stronger…

Net profit HUF 105.4 bln, adj. net profit HUF 112.2 bln compares with HUF 95.8/98.1 bln cons. and HUF 102/103 bln Concorde fcast (POS) Better results on risk cost, net fees (Hungarian retail bond fee, volumes) NIM erosion continues (remarkably in Russia, Ukraine), compensated by volumesà NII +5% q/q Risk cost remained low on Hungarian write-backs, Russia, Bulgaria higher Capital adequacy at 15.9%, 2.8% lower if acquisitions included Overall stellar results, yearly consensus and our estimate of HUF 348 bln for the FY seems achievable, could be better if trends remain in place     OTP ...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

CPI - July CPI – Shows Relief In Inflation Pressure

July inflation was 3.3%, down 0.1pps from a month earlier. Core inflation fell 3.7% from 3.8% a month earlier. HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION (YOY) Source: CSO, Concorde The headline inflation fell marginally hand-in-hand with core prices. The recent slowdown in core inflation was visible in the central bank’s underlying inflation indicators, too. The closely watched net core inflation fell to 3.2% from the peak of 3.7% reached in May, still above the level (3%) described earlier by the MNB as ‘to be watched closely’ regarding its implication for the perseverance of inflation pressure / compat...