reports
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Neutral results, Bank targets EUR 500 mln share buyback
Erste’s net income came to EUR 688 mln in Q4, down by 16% q-o-q and up by 34% y-o-y while the figure came 3% ahead of consensus and slightly below our estimate. The market beat came from provisioning mainly as the Bank released FLI provisions in the amount of EUR 200 mln in the Other Austria Segment. Risk cost was allocated mainly at savings banks due to SME and medium-sized real estate projects. NII declined 3% q-o-q due to moderately rising deposit pass-through rates, interest rate caps in ...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Model update after Q4 earnings
We updated our model due to better 2023 results, better NII and risk cost outlook. While the Romanian reference rate is set to decline to below 6% this year, but NII could be higher compared to 2023 on stellar volumes and repricing could be slower on the asset side. Asset quality should stay benign but positive contribution to earnings is unlikely to be sustainable thus we project it to be 32bps and 47bps for 2024 and 2025, respectively. We also included the turnover tax for the 2024-2026 p...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Sound Q4 results but dividend somewhat disappoints
BRD’s reported net income came to RON 425 mln in the fourth quarter, down by 8% q-o-q due to seasonally higher costs (+13% q-o-q) and lower Net F&C. NII was up by 5% quarterly thanks to lending volumes counterbalanced by partially higher amount of deposits thus this was the reason of stalling NIM at 3.5%. Operating expenses were also up by 13% q-o-q partially due to seasonality and 8% y-o-y. Amongst expense lines besides PEREX, other operating expenses also increased substantially (+15% y-o-...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
A strong quarter again
OTP posted HUF 281 bln net profit in the third quarter vs. our estimate of HUF 255.5 bln and consensus of HUF 224.2 bln. Better results stemmed from higher operating profit (+8% ahead of our estimate) and lower provisioning (HUF 3.2 bln vs. our forecast of HUF 15 bln). NII came 4% ahead of consensus and other operating income was substantially higher than estimates (HUF 91 bln vs. HUF 57 bln). Key positives OTP had a better result than expected thanks to the revenue side as well as better pr...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Solid results, DPS 0.92 proposed
BRD net income came to RON 461 mln in the third quarter, up by 11% q-o-q and 17% y-o-y while exceeded our estimate by 21%. The better than anticipated results came from higher net interest income, which was up by 3% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y and fees were also strong. NIM was rather stable on growing asset base. Costs were up by 3% q-o-q due to higher personnel expenses. Due to higher revenues and slower OPEX growth, operating result improved by 7% q-o-q. Cost of risk was again positive mainly giv...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Q3 earnings well above exp. with strong ex-RU
RBI’s reported net income came to EUR 879 mln, 40% ahead of the consensus and 3% above our estimates. The quarter was marked by lower contribution from Russia partially due to the special tax introduced and very strong Core operation despite another round (EUR 166 mln) of CHF litigation costs. NII went up by 6% q-o-q and 4% y-o-y as a result of EUR rates feeding through interest income while deposit repricing stabilized in CZ, RO. NIM as a result also increased to 2.8% or 19 bps q-o-q. Weaker...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Solid results despite higher cost of risk
Erste reported a net income figure of EUR 820 mln, beating market estimate of EUR 757 mln and even our top forecast of EUR 807 mln. Better than exp. results came from the higher operating results while risk provisioning was higher than forecasted (in line though with our estimates). NII was still growing 20% y-o-y and 4% q-o-q. In the previous quarter, there was a negative one-off in HU to the tune of EUR 40 mln, adjusting for that the increase was 1.6% on a quarterly comparison. NIM also imp...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Strong beat on operating profit, provisions
OTP posted HUF 382 bln net profit vs. our estimate of HUF 312 bln and market cons.of HUF 277 bln. The substantial beat vs. expectations came from better NII (6%ahead our estimate), higher other income (HUF 89 bln vs. our forecast of HUF 55 bln)while risk cost was a positive item driven by better macroparameters and overall provision releases (RO, DSK, HR and RU, Ukr).Key positives OTP had a substantially better result than expected thanks to the revenue side as wellas better provisions and cost...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Good results on cost control, provisioning
BRD’s reported net income came to RON 416 mln in the second quarter – upby 19% y-o-y and 23% q-o-q as risk cost was positive and OPEX was undercontrol with higher revenues y-o-y. Net interest income was at RON 658 mln, up by 16% y-o-y thanks to higherinterest rates and volumes but q-o-q there was a decline of 2% as a result ofhigher cost of liabilities thus NIM also declined to 3.5% from 3.7%. Net F&C was up 9% q-o-q due to higher fees across all segments offset bylower gains from FX and deriv...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
In line net profit, strong core
RBI’s reported net income came to EUR 578 mln in the quarter, down by 12%q-o-q and 55% y-o-y. The yearly comparison is distorted by the Bulgarian gainin the previous year (EUR 435 mln). The second quarter was burdened by Polishlitigation costs of EUR 338 mln compensated by provision releases in Russiawhile other segments also reported good asset quality. Net interest income was down q-o-q as a result of weaker Russia (FX was downtoo) while ex-RU,BY there was a growth of 4.2%. NIM as a result st...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Erste: Guidance upgrade on strong H1
Erste’s reported net income came to EUR 896 mln in the second quarter, up by30% y-o-y on the back of stellar operating results and lower risk provisioning.Results came out better than market consensus of EUR 747 mln and ourestimate of EUR 738 mln due to impairment reversals and lower charges underthe other results line (reversal of resolution funds and HU bank tax). Net interest income grew further by 1% while NIM was slightly down by 4bps.On a geographical breakdown Austria remained strong and...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Russia: will they, won’t they?
We updated our RBI estimates due to transfer of coverage with a target price of EUR20.5. We emphasize that this TP assumes a 0 value of Russia and Belarus thus anypositive news would trigger further upside in valuation while the downside from hereseems limited. The implied valuation of Belarus and Russia is already close to zero at a PE of 1.9x andPBV of 0.3x for 2023. This may be rational but what is not is the discount on the rest ofthe Group vs. peers in our view as it is trading at PE of 4....
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Peaking earnings but dividend restoration supports Romanian rerating s...
We set our new target price for BRD to RON 14.0 and maintain our Accumulaterating, leaving a 26.4% upside including a div. yield of 11.4%. BRD’s investment case is shaped by stellar net interest income development withcosts more or less under control and rather low cost of risk for 2023. Net interestincome is expected to peak this year given weaker volumes and credit marginsahead. Nevertheless moderately rising risk cost could still result in double-digit ROEin our forecasted period. While risk...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
BRD - Strong Start To 2023 On Net Interest Income, Lower Provisioning
BRD’s reported income came ahead our estimate of RON 291 mln by 16% andimplies a profit growth of 30% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q. Better than expectedresults stemmed from stronger operating results (higher NII and lower thananticipated OPEX growth) while provisioning was extremely low, 10 bps in thequarter. Net interest income hiked by 4% q-o-q thanks to the higher loan book andimproving margins (+10 bps q-o-q). Net F&C came in line with ourexpectations and 4% lower q-o-q and y-o-y on lower fees from c...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Strong bottom line on positive one-offs, low provisioning and foreign ...
OTP posted HUF 194.8 bln net profit figure vs. our forecast of HUF 184.8 bln andmarket expectation of HUF 167.9 bln. The better result vs. our estimate came fromlower provisions. As we anticipated, weaker HU operations were offset by NKBMearnings contribution and foreign subsidiaries but even with the exclusion of the acquisition, earnings were strong on a Group level.Key positives OTP reported better results vs. the market on stronger revenues (NII and other) andsubstantially lower risk cost. ...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Profit beat despite higher provisioning in RU, guidance upgrade
Profit beat despite higher provisioning in RU, guidanceupgrade Raiffeisen posted EUR 657 mln, above market estimate of EUR 528 mln by 24%and in line with our profit figure forecast of EUR 650 mln. The profit beat vs. theconsensus basically came from higher revenues particularly fees. With regardsto trends, RBI is visibly trying to wind down business activity in Russia&Belaruswhile the Core business (rest of the Group) was strong in the first quarter. Notethat the RUB depreciated against the EUR...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Erste - Better Results, Guidance Upgrade For 2023 Already In Q1
Better results, guidance upgrade for 2023 already in Q1 Erste’s reported net income came to EUR 594 mln, ahead of the consensus adour estimate by 9% and 11%, respectively. The beat came from higher thananticipated NII and fees while risk cost was also a positive line in the quarteron provision releases. Net interest income grew 27% y-o-y and 13% q-o-q but again, adjusted forTLTRO negative in Q4, the improvement was lower though still strong. (+5% qo-q). On a geographical breakdown, Hungari...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
OTP - Against all odds
We cut slightly our 12M TP for OTP to HUF 14,000, which is a result of three powers: (1) our earnings forecast for 2023 and 2024 are up by 31.5% and 13.4%, respectively. (2) At the same time, the cost of equity also increased to 12.5% from 11% given the acquisition in Uzbekistan and overall higher terminal risk-free rates in countries where OTP operates – in tandem with global core rate hikes. (3) RWA inflation also affected our TP adversely.
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
OTP Bank - Profit Beat On Lower One-Off, Not So Conservative Guidance
Profit beat on lower one-off, not so conservative guidance OTP came up with a net profit figure of HUF 115 bln, above market estimate of HUF 103 bln and our forecast of HUF 105 bln as interest rate cap cost edged lower than expected. Y-o-Y adjusted profit growth (+24%) was driven by foreign subsidiaries as Hungarian NII erosion took its toll. The mgmt. released its guidance for 2023 which claims high uncertainty related to the war and the Hungarian economy. Nevertheless, the Bank expects an adj...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
OTP Bank - Profit Beat On Main Lines, Foreign Branches Drove Earnings
Profit beat on main lines, foreign branches drove earnings OTP reported HUF 189.2 bln net profit in the second quarter, well ahead of the consensus (+28%) and our estimates (+9%) on better revenues, lower provisioning. Higher profit compared to our estimate is basically explained by larger other income line. Key positives OTP had a beat relative to market expectations on all core lines including net interest income (4% ahead the market) and fees (5% over exp.) paired with flattish provision...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.