reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Memory: AI HBM accelerating, cycle elsewhere close to a b...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 7% QoQ, with HBM up 65%, accounting for virtually all the growth. HBM demand remains strong, with revenues expected to more than double in 2025. The non-datacenter outlook is still blea...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Semicap: everyone aims to gain share in a muted WFE marke...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were up 10% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending beginning to decline. Vendors expect Chinese spending to decline significantly in 2025 but st...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Telecom Infrastructure – Recovery across the board
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex rebounded, up 13% YoY, driving a strong recovery across the value chain—from fixed and mobile equipment to semiconductors. Nokia remains our top pick in the sector.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
SPKX, EGO, ASTL, IEX, MOD, CARR, KMT, TTC, DOOO, BWA, WNC, THRM, FOXF, GNTX, AOS, RRX, ADI, TXN, AMD, PI, SYNA, SWKS, IPGP, POWI, MCHP, DIOD, ON, FORM, AMKR, COHU, ITRI, LDOS, TXT, OLED, VECO, HOG, DHI, LEN, SPB, PII, CNR, hort Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical pattern...
SYNA SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
WNC WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION
VECO VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC.
TXT TEXTRON INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
THRM GENTHERM INCORPORATED
RBC REGAL BELOIT CORP
POWI POWER INTEGRATIONS INC.
PII POLARIS INC.
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
OLED UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
LEN LENNAR CORPORATION CLASS A
LDOS LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC.
ITRI ITRON INC.
IPGP IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION
GNTX GENTEX CORPORATION
FOXF FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP.
FORM FORMFACTOR INC.
DIOD DIODES INCORPORATED
BWA BORGWARNER INC.
CNR. CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COMPANY
DHI D.R. HORTON INC.
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC.
DOO BRP INC.
COHU COHU INC.
KMT KENNAMETAL INC.
TTC TORO COMPANY
AOS A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
PI IMPINJ INC.
SPXX NUVEEN S&P 500 DYNAMIC OVERWRI
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AMKR AMKOR TECHNOLOGY INC.
HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC.
SPB SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS INC.
ELD ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORP.
ASTL LEGATO MERGER CORP
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION
POWI POWER INTEGRATIONS INC.
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
LDOS LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC.
JJSF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.
HSY HERSHEY COMPANY
GPRE GREEN PLAINS INC.
GGG GRACO INC.
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION
FORM FORMFACTOR INC.
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CRL CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES INTERNATIONAL INC.
BAH BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION CLASS A
ASH ASHLAND GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC.
APOG APOGEE ENTERPRISES INC.
BCPC BALCHEM CORPORATION
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
COHU COHU INC.
CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC INC.
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC.
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC.
LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
NX QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
RDY DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD. ADS
PI IMPINJ INC.
BHP BHP GROUP
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
ELD ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
CFB CROSSFIRST BANKSHARES
LHX L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC
HII. HORIZONS CDN INS
RVMD REVOLUTION MEDICINES
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORP.
UTZ UTZ BRANDS INC (A)
OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION
FLNC FLUENCE ENERGY INC
STM STABILUS SE
ELVN IMARA INC
HEI HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC CO INC COM
AMKR 21SHARES MAKER ETP
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Analog Devices, Inc. and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 22 November 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the cont...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Play the Hand You're Dealt We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; in this market that refers to riding the trend higher on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth, considering the Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base. This suggests growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Historically, growth outperforms during bull markets, so none of this should come as a surprise. Market dynamics continue to decis...
NXPIN NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
HIMX HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES INC. SPONSORED ADR
DIOD DIODES INCORPORATED
AMBA AMBARELLA INC.
CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC INC.
MTSI MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS INC.
PI IMPINJ INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
SGH SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TSEM TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD
SITM SITIME
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
Moody's rates Analog Devices' senior notes at A2
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) rated Analog Devices, Inc.'s (Analog) new senior unsecured notes (New Notes) at A2. The A2 rating on Analog's existing senior unsecured notes, the P-1 short term rating, and the stable outlook are unchanged. Net proceeds from the New Notes will eventually be used to fund ...
Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Analog...
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Analog Devices, Inc. and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 16 January 2024 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratin...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
DOV DOVER CORPORATION
SON SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
UCTT ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
SLAB SILICON LABORATORIES INC.
RBC REGAL BELOIT CORP
POWI POWER INTEGRATIONS INC.
NDSN NORDSON CORPORATION
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC.
MKSI MKS INSTRUMENTS INC.
MIDD MIDDLEBY CORPORATION
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
DIOD DIODES INCORPORATED
BERY BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC
B BARNES GROUP INC.
AMBA AMBARELLA INC.
MHK MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC.
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC.
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
KLIC KULICKE & SOFFA INDUSTRIES INC.
LSCC LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
XYL XYLEM INC.
TYIA JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC
JELD JELD-WEN HOLDING INC.
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
MATW MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION CLASS A
A2H5RW ERO COPPER
STM STABILUS SE
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