Crude Quarterly Q4'24: oil market stabilising

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 10 January

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord announced that plateau production at Tyra is now expected to be delayed by around three weeks due to adverse weather, shifting the timeline to the second half of January 2025. Consequently, we expect a dividend announcement around or with its Q4 results (due on 12 February). In other news, the Arkenstone drilling campaign has been temporarily suspended after encountering shallow gas. Also, DNO and OKEA have agreed to swap 10% interests in the Mistral and Horatio prospects.

Solid NCS production in November

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for November showed liquids and gas production slightly above its own forecasts. Liquids production was 1,975kboed (2.1% above its forecast) and gas production was 360mcm/d (3.0% above). Overall production was 4.24mmboed, up 2.1% MOM (2.6% above). Company-wise, production was up MOM in October for all companies, following the maintenance-heavy September. Also, the water-cut for Johan Sverdrup seems to have stabilised in recent mo...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 20/12/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Material discovery at Alberta Llanos - The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well has encountered four main hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs with a total true vertical depth of 121 feet, including the C7, Gacheta, Guadalupe, and Ubaque formations. The main pre-drill targets were the C7 and the Ubaque formations. The Gacheta and Guadalupe formations carried a higher risk, an...

Energy Morning - 18 December 2024

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

E&P Sector (DNB Markets) (, ) - Weekly news, topics & discussion (26 pages)

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor announced a joint venture with Shell for its UK assets. We consider this a sensible move for Equinor, reducing its exposure to Rosebank (and likely cutting near-term organic capex by ~3–4%), while boosting near-term production by ~1.5% and accelerating the use of its significant UK tax loss position through increased production. In other news, Pål Eitrheim, EVP Renewables at Equinor, is leaving the company after 26 years. Finally, for Panoro Energy, we expect increased dividen...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Following the recent strengthening of European gas prices, we published an update on the impact for the NCS large caps in our coverage. With high gas prices likely isolated to 2025–2026e, we see a limited valuation effect. Also, following Trump’s US election victory, we see increased risk for potential delays to a farm-down of Empire Wind, which could limit Equinor’s ability to reduce its near-term renewables capex. In other news, Panoro Energy completed issuance of a new USD150m senior secured ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...