Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Set for strong sales and cash flow

Ahead of the Q1 report, due around 07:00 CET on 29 April, we forecast net production of ~33kboed and EBITDA of USD189m (no reliable consensus). We expect a meaningful overlift position and working capital release in the quarter, with USD69m in FCF, increasing OKEA’s net cash position to USD120m (NOK12/share or ~65% of current market cap). While we still forecast FCF to be negative in 2025–2026 due to high investments in new developments, we continue to find the long-term case attractive given a ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...

NCS February production in line

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Transactions provide value support

DNO is set to acquire Sval Energi at an EV/2P of USD11.3/boe, broadly matching the NCS transaction average. Meanwhile, OKEA is trading at USD3.9/boe on the similar metric, and even the low-end of historical NCS transaction metrics would calculate to ~100–150% upside potential to the last close. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20), with the latter still implying a P/NAV 0.6x, although we see even greater upside potential in an M&A scenario.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week,

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

US shale: resilient growth in 2025e

Based on our Q4 survey of US shale companies, we expect continued efficiency gains, productivity improvements, and operational synergies from consolidation to drive ~5% YOY liquids production growth in 2025, broadly in line with 2024 levels. This is despite an estimated 5% YOY decline in capex, indicating that production is expanding steadily without a corresponding increase in activity. The combination of rising production and declining capex is likely to drive down breakeven levels, strengthen...

Energy Morning - 4 March 2025