TAL reported disappointing earnings for 4QFY25. Revenue grew 42% yoy to US$610m for 4QFY25, 4% below our and consensus estimates. Gross profit rose 40% yoy to US$318m, with gross margin narrowing 1ppt yoy to 52%. Non-GAAP net profit missed expectations and came in at US$7m vs the street’s estimate of US$50m. Non-GAAP net margin shrank 10ppt yoy to 1% due to stepped-up marketing efforts for AI learning devices amid low seasonality. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$14.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) Aier delivered a relatively modest growth in 2024 but revenue and adjusted net earnings saw robust growth of 15.97% and 25.8% yoy respectively for 1Q25. Management is confident about the growth outlook for Aier given rigid service demand despite the relatively weak economic conditions. Aier has further expanded its hospital network and will continue to improve operating efficiency by actively deploying AI ...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...
Following the global impact of ChatGPT, China’s DeepSeek AI model is rapidly gaining traction in education. Companies that successfully integrate AI are well-positioned to lead the next wave of industry transformation, securing a strategic advantage in the evolving market landscape. We believe high-quality open-source AI models and costeffective solutions will accelerate the commercialisation of AI-powered education products. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
TAL delivered a strong set of 3QFY25 results. Revenue surged 62% yoy to US$606m for 3QFY25, 12-14% above our and consensus estimates. Gross profit grew 60% yoy to US$320m, with gross margin narrowing 1ppt yoy to 53%, due to the launch of lowerpriced AI learning devices in August. Non-GAAP net profit beat expectations and came in at US$39m vs consensus estimate of US$20m. Non-GAAP net margin expanded 7ppt yoy to 6%, indicating a profit turnaround. Maintain BUY with a target price of US$14.00.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales up 14% yoy and 30% wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Prolonged industry consolidation, moderation of global installation growth and rising protectionism challenge survivability. Results TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$11.07/Target: US$14.00): 3QFY25: Strong earnings beat; profit turnaround amid investment in learning devices. INDONESIA Results Bank Negara Indonesia...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations grew 14% yoy and 30% wow in the third week of 2025. Geely Xingyuan maintained its top position in A0-segment pure EV sales, while Galaxy L7 EM-i led the A-segment PHEV SUV market in sales. China's 2025 "two-new" policy expands scrapping subsidies to some China IV vehicles, offering up to Rmb20,000 for EV purchases and introducing extended eligibility criteria. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV. ...
With a multi-faceted strategic transformation, EDU and TAL have entered a new phase of growth, riding on key themes like learning services, learning content solutions and overseas study. The distinct strategic approaches by both companies suggest that EDU mainly focuses on diversification and contextualisation of education services, whereas TAL emphasises the transformative potential of technological innovation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Export Growth Rebounded; Rush Order Ahead Of Tariffs? Sector Education Key growth themes in 2025 upon policy clarity and AI integration progress. Property Sales pull back mom before Chinese New Year; updates of 2024 op...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb31.13/Target: Rmb37.00) 9M24: Results in line; smooth progress in R&D and CSPC Baike acquisition. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/HOLD/Rmb12.75/Target: Rmb13.50) 9M24: Results miss; targeting 2024 regular ICL revenue growth of 10% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$10.12/Target: US$14.00) 2QFY25: Strong earnings beat; resilient growth visibility in AI learning devices. ...
1QFY25 results beat expectations. Revenue surged 50% yoy to US$414m for 1QFY25, 5% above the street’s estimates. Non-GAAP net profit beat expectations and came in at US$30m vs consensus estimate of a US$6m net loss. TAL guided 2QFY25 revenue growth of 44-47% yoy and reach US$593m-605m, 5% above consensus estimate. However, non-GAAP operating profit is guided to decline yoy due to new product development, below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$12.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls Chinese equities fell more than 2% in July, losing initial gains after the Third Plenum did not lead to new stimulus policies. For August, 1H24 results would be the catalyst for most stocks, and we expect earnings of EV names to be under pressure given the intense price competition. We add Cosco Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and SELL on WuXi Bio and XPeng to diversify away our market risk exposur...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
The HSI and MSCI China fell 2.0% and 2.8% mom respectively in June, as investors locked in profits amid weaker-than-expected macro data. A continuation of the rally that began in January hinges on the policy announcements from the Third Plenum. Looking ahead, we remain sellers of BYD due to intense competition in the EV segment and are adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.95/Target: HK$4.76) 1Q24 preview: Expecting interim DPS to more than double. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24 Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSM...
This year marks the third year after the “Double Reduction” policy was introduced. During these three years, EDU and TAL adopted a multi-faceted approach to foster healthy long-term growth. The key growth catalysts include: a) normalised regulatory tone, b) AIGC integration and smart devices, and c) diversified revenue stream with overseas exposure. We opine that the near-term drag on margins is mainly due to investment to foster sustainable growth. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
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