reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact, and we continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EM (EEM-US) remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively. Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure. The Nikkei 225 displays a 2-month base breakout, and the TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes are on the cusp of 3-month breakouts to multi-decade highs. This signals a continuation of the uptren...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Int'l Equity Strategy The recent bear market rally has run its course and market indicators are still largely bearish amid rapidly rising global rates/inflation and tightening monetary policy. Moreover, the broad MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) all remain in YTD downtrends. As long as these downtrends remain intact, we are bearish at the index level, and we expect more volatility and lower prices ahead. From a Sector perspective, we want to remain overweight commodity ...
CNOOC LTD sees an upgrade to Positive due to a better fundamental star...
The general evaluation of CNOOC LTD (HK), a company active in the Exploration & Production industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date February 1, 2022, the closing price was HKD 9.36 an...
Cnooc: 1 director bought
A director at Cnooc bought 200,000 shares at 7.190HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | Lowering CNOOC’s and PetroChina’s FVEs on Weaker Oil...
Brent crude oil has fallen from over $70 a barrel in late April to about $61 today on the back of concerns on global demand amid the trade tension between the U.S. and China. We lower CNOOC's and PetroChina’s fair value estimates to HKD 14.30 per share ($183 per ADR) and HKD 4.70 per share ($60 per ADR, CNY 4.04 per share) from HKD 14.50 ($186) and HKD 5.10 ($65, CNY 4.38), respectively, after incorporating weaker near-term crude oil price assumptions in our valuation models. However, our midc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | Lowering CNOOC’s and PetroChina’s FVEs on Weaker Oil...
CNOOC is the upstream arm of China's third state-owned oil company, China National Offshore Oil. As a result, it's the most direct option for investors seeking exposure to China's energy security policy and long-term plans to increase its oil supply. As it does not have downstream activities, the company has also avoided a large legacy labor force. None of the company's sales are subject to government price controls.CNOOC also represents China's rights to potentially lucrative offshore reserves ...
- Chokwai Lee
Lowering CNOOC’s and PetroChina’s FVEs on Weaker Oil Prices; Bigge...
Brent crude oil has fallen from over $70 a barrel in late April to about $61 today on the back of concerns on global demand amid the trade tension between the U.S. and China. We lower CNOOC's and PetroChina’s fair value estimates to HKD 14.30 per share ($183 per ADR) and HKD 4.70 per share ($60 per ADR, CNY 4.04 per share) from HKD 14.50 ($186) and HKD 5.10 ($65, CNY 4.38), respectively, after incorporating weaker near-term crude oil price assumptions in our valuation models. However, our midc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC's 1Q Operating Statistics Broadly In Line; Shares ...
No-moat CNOOC's first-quarter operating figures were largely in line with our expectations. After factoring in higher near-term oil price assumptions and our updated foreign-exchange forecasts, we maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 14.50 per share ($186 per ADR). Our midcycle oil price forecast of $60 per barrel is unchanged. We think CNOOC’s shares are fairly valued at this level, with the recent strength in oil prices largely priced in. CNOOC’s oil and gas sales revenue declined 1.2%...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC's 1Q Operating Statistics Broadly In Line; Shares ...
No-moat CNOOC's first-quarter operating figures were largely in line with our expectations. After factoring in higher near-term oil price assumptions and our updated foreign-exchange forecasts, we maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 14.50 per share ($186 per ADR). Our midcycle oil price forecast of $60 per barrel is unchanged. We think CNOOC’s shares are fairly valued at this level, with the recent strength in oil prices largely priced in. CNOOC’s oil and gas sales revenue declined 1.2%...
- Chokwai Lee
CNOOC's 1Q Operating Statistics Broadly In Line; Shares Fairly Valued
No-moat CNOOC's first-quarter operating figures were largely in line with our expectations. After factoring in higher near-term oil price assumptions and our updated foreign-exchange forecasts, we maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 14.50 per share ($186 per ADR). Our midcycle oil price forecast of $60 per barrel is unchanged. We think CNOOC’s shares are fairly valued at this level, with the recent strength in oil prices largely priced in. CNOOC’s oil and gas sales revenue declined 1.2% ...
- Chokwai Lee
CNOOC's 1Q Operating Statistics Broadly In Line
No-moat CNOOC’s 2018 net profit was up 114% year over year to CNY 52.7 billion, underpinned by a 28% jump in realized oil price and the firm’s cost-cutting efforts. Stripping out impairment provision of CNY 5.4 billion related to certain exploration and evaluation assets in North America, the results were above our expectation. We increase our fair value estimate to HKD 14.50 per share (USD 186 per ADR) from HKD 13.70 (USD 176) after taking into account the latest results and stronger produc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC’s Robust 2018 Results Affected by Impairment Pro...
CNOOC is the upstream arm of China's third state-owned oil company, China National Offshore Oil. As a result, it's the most direct option for investors seeking exposure to China's energy security policy and long-term plans to increase its oil supply. As it does not have downstream activities, the company has also avoided a large legacy labor force. None of the company's sales are subject to government price controls.CNOOC also represents China's rights to potentially lucrative offshore reserves ...
- Chokwai Lee
CNOOC’s Robust 2018 Results Affected by Impairment Provision; FVE at...
No-moat CNOOC’s 2018 net profit was up 114% year over year to CNY 52.7 billion, underpinned by a 28% jump in realized oil price and the firm’s cost-cutting efforts. Stripping out impairment provision of CNY 5.4 billion related to certain exploration and evaluation assets in North America, the results were above our expectation. We increase our fair value estimate to HKD 14.50 per share (USD 186 per ADR) from HKD 13.70 (USD 176) after taking into account the latest results and stronger produc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC’s Robust 2018 Results Affected by Impairment Pro...
No-moat CNOOC’s 2018 net profit was up 114% year over year to CNY 52.7 billion, underpinned by a 28% jump in realized oil price and the firm’s cost-cutting efforts. Stripping out impairment provision of CNY 5.4 billion related to certain exploration and evaluation assets in North America, the results were above our expectation. We increase our fair value estimate to HKD 14.50 per share (USD 186 per ADR) from HKD 13.70 (USD 176) after taking into account the latest results and stronger produc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC’s Robust 2018 Results Affected by Impairment Pro...
No-moat CNOOC’s 2018 net profit was up 114% year over year to CNY 52.7 billion, underpinned by a 28% jump in realized oil price and the firm’s cost-cutting efforts. Stripping out impairment provision of CNY 5.4 billion related to certain exploration and evaluation assets in North America, the results were above our expectation. We increase our fair value estimate to HKD 14.50 per share (USD 186 per ADR) from HKD 13.70 (USD 176) after taking into account the latest results and stronger produc...
- Chokwai Lee
CNOOC’s Robust 2018 Results Affected by Impairment Provision; Raisin...
No-moat CNOOC’s 2018 net profit was up 114% year over year to CNY 52.7 billion, underpinned by a 28% jump in realized oil price and the firm’s cost-cutting efforts. Stripping out impairment provision of CNY 5.4 billion related to certain exploration and evaluation assets in North America, the results were above our expectation. We increase our fair value estimate to HKD 14.50 per share (USD 186 per ADR) from HKD 13.70 (USD 176) after taking into account the latest results and stronger produc...
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | CNOOC’s 2019 Strategy Preview Reveals Higher Output Ta...
We increase no-moat CNOOC's fair value estimate to HKD 13.70 per share (USD 176 per ADR) from HKD 13.20 per share (USD 170 per ADR), largely due to higher production targets guided by the firm. Our midcycle Brent oil price assumption is unchanged at USD 60 per barrel, and we think CNOOC is currently fairly valued as we do not expect significant upside in oil prices going forward. According to the firm’s 2019 business strategy, 2018 oil & gas output is around 475 million barrels of oil equival...
- Chokwai Lee
CNOOC’s 2019 Strategy Preview Reveals Higher Output Targets; Shares ...
We increase no-moat CNOOC's fair value estimate to HKD 13.70 per share (USD 176 per ADR) from HKD 13.20 per share (USD 170 per ADR), largely due to higher production targets guided by the firm. Our midcycle Brent oil price assumption is unchanged at USD 60 per barrel, and we think CNOOC is currently fairly valued as we do not expect significant upside in oil prices going forward. According to the firm’s 2019 business strategy, 2018 oil & gas output is around 475 million barrels of oil equiva.....
- Chokwai Lee
Morningstar | Trimming CNOOC’s and PetroChina’s FVEs to Incorporat...
We have refreshed the fair value estimates for our oil and gas coverage after incorporating meaningfully weaker crude prices. To be clear, there is no change in our midcycle price forecast of USD 60 per barrel for Brent. But the recent declines in global crude prices still weigh on our valuation because our methodology incorporates strip prices over the next three years. Our fair value estimates for CNOOC and PetroChina are lowered to HKD 13.20 per share (USD 170 per ADR) from HKD 14.70 per sha...
- Chokwai Lee
Trimming CNOOC’s and PetroChina’s FVEs to Incorporate Lower Near-T...
We have refreshed the fair value estimates for our oil and gas coverage after incorporating meaningfully weaker crude prices. To be clear, there is no change in our midcycle price forecast of USD 60 per barrel for Brent. But the recent declines in global crude prices still weigh on our valuation because our methodology incorporates strip prices over the next three years. Our fair value estimates for CNOOC and PetroChina are lowered to HKD 13.20 per share (USD 170 per ADR) from HKD 14.70 per sha...
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