reports
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos – Q2 25 review: Sector discipline still in-tact
Thai telcos posted LSD service revenue growth, while EBITDA slowed to MSD. TRUE underperformed due to May’s power outage but still guided for 2H recovery on spectrum rental savings despite the guidance downgrade. While risks from soft tourism may persist, sector discipline and its value-based pricing approach remains intact.
Indian Telcos Q1 FY26 review: Strong but moderation expected as it la...
Mobile trends accelerated with margin expansion a recurring theme across the board. Both Jio and Bharti have recently discontinued their lowest entry pack which should sustain ARPU in the low-double digits, however the bullishness in mobile trajectory appears to have already been reflected in consensus.
Bharti Airtel Ltd: 6 directors
A director at Bharti Airtel Ltd sold 71,000,000 shares at 1,814.080INR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Auction concludes, no major surprises
Thailand concluded its spectrum auction on Sunday and raised THB 41.3bn (US$ 1.26bn). Overall process was benign and results were as expected – AIS retained its 2100MHz share whilst TRUE won the 2300MHz and 1500MHz band; only the 850MHz was left unsold. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q1 25 review: Steady Q1, incoming auction risk likely mod...
Thai telcos had a good run in 2024 and the momentum carried into Q1 2025 with steady service revenue and margin growth. However, weaker inbound tourism figures and the tariff overhang have raised concerns, contributing to the downward revision in GDP forecasts (1.8% to 1.1% in 2025).
Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive
India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Thoughts on upcoming spectrum auction
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 24 review: Likely to beat full year guidance as market...
Despite Q3 being a seasonally weaker period, the industry delivered a better service revenue and EBITDA performance. Mobile improved on better prepaid numbers from AIS. Given how strong YTD numbers have been, it is very likely both will beat guidance. We stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 24 review: Macro continues to impact the top line
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL – Nationalisation beckons, and implications for Bha...
With the company unlikely to have been able to engineer a meaningful recovery by the end of the moratorium on payments to the govt, and the stock trading below the level at which it can issue new shares, we see the most likely outcome now as creeping nationalisation. Bad for VIL, but great for Bharti and Jio. We discuss implications for Indus in a separate note out today.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong momentum with continued margin uplif...
Thai operators delivered good margins uplift again, and TRUE upgraded guidance. After turning the corner in Q4, Thai mobile growth sustained in the 4% range on prepaid strength. With the outlook now positive , we stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong earnings despite softer topline; ...
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
Singtel/AIS Merger of Intouch and Gulf Energy; VTO of AIS. Implicatio...
The merger between Intouch Holdings (where Singtel owns a 24.99% stake) and Gulf Energy was announced today. Following this, a waiver had been obtained to trigger a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) instead of a Mandatory Offer for 36.25% of AIS shares. We outline the implications for Singtel and AIS below.
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