Singtel and XLSmart were the standout performers in 2025 among ASEAN telcos as continued weak macro held back other markets even those which have seen consolidation. In 2026, we think the benefit of consolidation should be more apparent in the latter. Singtel and TRUE remain our top picks in the region.
2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.
EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.
After a banner 2024 (+33% on average), 2025 saw further absolute upside for the Chinese telcos, albeit underperforming a strong local index (HSI +32%). Valuations have increased relative to the past, but the stocks remain cheap in our view, and should grind higher, as modest top line growth and falling capex lead to decent cash flow and shareholder remuneration growth.
2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...
India’s mobile revenue growth moderated as expected, after lapping last year’s tariff increase. As the IPO of Jio nears, we foresee another potential price increase. Separately for Vodafone Idea, we think AGR relief seems likely but we question whether this is sufficient to enable the company to reach “escape velocity” and become a viable 3rd operator again.
EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.
EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Singtel’s numbers were strong yesterday, but we now think Bharti is likely to outperform over the next 6-12 months, given how far Singtel has moved already. In a separate note out today, we are lifting our Bharti price target to INR 2,750 which itself drives an increase in the pt to S$6.2 for Singtel.
Greater China Company Results | Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$84.65/Target: HK$105.00) TME delivered strong 3Q25 results with both the top-line and bottom line beating our expectations. Revenue grew 20.6% yoy to Rmb8.5b, 3% above the street’s estimates. Non-GAAP operating profit jumped 25.2% yoy to Rmb3b, with operating margins edging up 1ppt yoy to 36%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 27.7% yoy to Rmb2.5b, beating consensus expectation by 7%, with net margins expanding 2ppt yoy to ...
Singtel reported a higher underlying net profit of S$1.4b (+14% yoy) in 1HFY26, driven by margin expansion from Optus and NCS, coupled with robust associate contributions. Positively, Singtel revised its FY26 OpCos’ EBIT growth and regional associates' dividend outlook. It also declared a total 1HFY26 dividend of 8.2 S cents/share, implying a 78% dividend payout ratio. BUY on share price weakness with a higher SOTP-based target price of S$5.20 as we narrowed our holding company discount (from 25...
Top Stories Company Results | ComfortDelGro Corp (CD SP/BUY/S$1.48/Target: S$1.76) CD’s 9M25 results were largely in line, with revenue up 14% yoy and core PATMI up 2% yoy on stronger contributions from recent acquisitions and UK contract renewals, partly offset by softer Singapore margins. Maintain BUY with a 4% higher target price of S$1.76. CD offers a 5.5% yield and is supported by its diversified portfolio and improving overseas mix. Company Results | Singapore Telecommunications (ST S...
With shares at all time high, Singtel delivered a strong performance as earnings momentum and capital recycling drove a 17% dividend growth. Underlying core EBITDA and EBIT were led by both Optus and NCS again while associates’ contribution from AIS and Bharti supported earnings.
Chinese telcos faced slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind. Despite the muted topline, cost control remained decent as China Telecom continues to grow EBITDA while Unicom starts to stabilise after three consecutive YoY declines. Earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three, suggesting 6-7% dividend yields in 2026
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.
Results were a touch behind expectations following an extended decline in Tower revenue, led by lower ARP/Tenant. This impacted margins which partially offset the stabilising/lower D&A costs, resulting in slower earnings growth. Importantly, the company has flagged an increase in useful life of its DAS assets from 7 to 10 years starting from July and is expected to lower its D&A costs by RMB 870m in 2025. This represents 1.7% of consensus D&A costs. Our key takeaways below
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