The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.
4Q25: In Line; Robust Earnings Driven By Cost Discipline Highlights Maxis recorded robust 4Q25 results, with core net profit of RM380m (+18% yoy; -8% qoq), underpinned by cost discipline, operational efficiencies and higher service and enterprise revenue base. This brings 2025 net profit to RM1,561m (+12% yoy), in line with expectations. The group declared a final interim DPS of 4 sen/share, and a special 1.5 sen/share DPS for 4Q25. This brings full-year 2025 net DPS to 17.5 sen/share (2024:...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, G...
Singtel delivered strong earnings in 3QFY26, lifting its 3QFY26 underlying net profit by 9% yoy and 12% qoq to S$744m. Earnings were bolstered by Optus and NCS’ positive operating matrix and 15% yoy associate income uplift. Singtel’s 9MFY26 underlying net profit of S$2.1b (+12% yoy) is in line with expectations. Maintain BUY with a higher SOTP-based target price of S$5.50.
Top Stories Strategy | Bullish Foundations In Place For 2026 The Singapore Budget for 2026 did not provide any major surprises, with the financial sector likely to be the most identifiable market beneficiary. We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE. Company Results | Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/...
With shares at all time high, Singtel delivered good results. Core profit growth slowed as Singtel Singapore deteriorated further, but NCS and Optus continue to perform well and associates’ contribution from AIS and Bharti were strong. It would appear the share price consolidation following the STT GDC acquisition is already over.
2025: Results In Line; Synergistic Savings Into 2026 Highlights CelcomDigi reported 4Q25 net profit of RM350m for 4Q25. Stripping out accelerated depreciation and asset impairment, 4Q25 core net profit came in at RM400m (-1% yoy; flat qoq). This brings 2025 net profit to RM1,660m (-4% yoy), in line with house and street’s estimates. 2025’s total dividend of 14.7 sen/share reflects a 104% core earnings payout. We trim 2026-27 earnings forecasts marginally by 1-3% as we housekeep for elevate...
Greater China Economics | Inflation January headline CPI eased to 0.2% yoy (-0.6ppt mom), below consensus forecasts, mainly due to a high base from last year’s Chinese New Year with food inflation turning negative. Core CPI fell to 0.8% yoy as both goods and services inflation moderated. PPI deflation narrowed to -1.4% yoy (+0.5ppt mom), supported by improvements in processing and non-ferrous metals sub-components, although mining and consumer goods remained weak. Overall, base effects drove CPI...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacte...
Top Stories Company Results | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP/BUY/S$1.01/Target: S$1.22) FLT’s logistics properties in Australia, Europe and the UK maintained full occupancy of 100% in 1QFY26. Its logistics properties in New South Wales, Australia clocked strong positive rental reversion of 43.3%. Occupancy at ATP improved 8.4ppt qoq to 86.3% after securing new ICT and healthcare tenants. Occupancy at Blythe Valley Park in the UK improved 6.8ppt qoq to 85.2% after securing a new tec...
Greater China Company Results | Yum China Holdings, Inc (9987 HK/NOT RATED/HK$392.40) In 4Q25, YUMC’s total revenue reached US$2,823m, up 9% yoy. Total system sales grew 7% yoy, with a 3% increase in same-store sales. Operating profit rose 25% yoy to US$187m, with operating margin at 6.6% (+80bp). For 1Q26, management targets positive SSS. It aims to maintain flat yoy restaurant margin and operating profit margin on a high base. For 2026, it expects to open more than 1,900 net new stores, wi...
Singtel and KKR announced the acquisition of STT GDC at an enterprise value of US$13.8b. Singtel will pay S$740m for a 25% stake in STT-GDC, with a further injection of S$400m-500m in equity over the next 2-3 years for capacity expansion. STT GDC owns 673MW of data centre capacity worldwide. The deal is viewed positively as it provides a longer-term earnings growth trajectory and cash flows. Maintain BUY on share price weakness with an SOTP-based target price of S$5.20.
Singtel announced it is acquiring a 25% stake in STT GDC. The deal was well flagged and we believe makes strategic sense but the detail is slightly underwhelming suggesting the stock is likely to see some profit taking near term.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.
Telenor has announced it is selling the majority of its stake in TRUE to a CP Group–affiliated company for THB 11.7, a 4% discount to the market price. In this brief note we discuss implications for TRUE, and thoughts for CelcomDigi.
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Service revenue bounced back (1.4% YoY from -0.3%), supported by Fibre and Postpaid offsetting Prepaid weakness. Operationally, Maxis delivered stronger EBITDA growth on cost efficiencies while CelcomDigi was weighed by higher bad debt provisions. Maxis raised its EBITDA guidance to MSD growth, from LSD and CelcomDigi reiterated their LSD service revenue guidance, implying a stronger 4Q for both.
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