GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales rebound wow but remain low due to wait-and-see sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Policy-driven installation rush to support prices; milder module shipment growth in 2025. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$120.90/Target: HK$150.00): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next three years to exceed that of the past decade. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK...
TRUE reported a Bt7.5b net loss in 4Q24, improving yoy but worsening qoq, missing expectations. The larger loss was due to a one-off asset impairment from network modernisation and losses from subsidiaries and associates. Excluding one-off items, core loss was Bt293m (+94% yoy, -113% qoq). We maintain our projections while awaiting more information from the analyst meeting. Maintain BUY on TRUE with a target price of Bt14.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt36.50/Target: Bt45.00) 4Q24: Above expectations; earnings projected to outperform peers’ in 2025. Bangchak Sriracha (BSRC TB/BUY/Bt4.94/Target: Bt8.00) 4Q24: Results in line with expectations. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt9.15/Target: Bt13.00) 4Q24: Earnings miss expectations; deep discount valuation. True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt12.80/Target: Bt14.50) 4Q24: Results below our...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: Add AIA, CR Land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. Take profit on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Jan 25. Feb 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, VSI...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
TRUE's core profit for 4Q24 is projected to soar 175% yoy and 59% qoq, underpinned by higher revenue, improved cost management, an enhanced gross margin and a reduced SG&A-to-sales ratio. Revenue from the mobile business should edge up yoy and qoq due to the higher number of subscribers from the seasonal effect. TRUE's earnings outlook for 2025 appears favourable. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt14.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB/HOLD/Bt98.75/Target: Bt94.00) 4Q24: Results in line; 100-120bp jump in credit cost guided. Update SCGP (SCGP TB/HOLD/Bt17.7/Target: Bt19.00) Weak 4Q24 net profit expected; positive sign from Fajar. True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt11.70/Target: Bt14.50) Robust core profit expected in 4Q24.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
2024 saw good performance from the Thai telcos and Singtel and more mixed in Malaysia and Indonesia. In 2025, we think the benefit of consolidation should be more apparent in the latter. Singtel and TRUE remain our top picks in the region.
GREATER CHINA Sector IT Hardware Solid 2024 Shipment Data; recovery in 2025 remains intact. Maintain OVERWEIGHT . INDONESIA Small/Mid Caps Highlights Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,690) Strong production outlook towards 2029. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Malaysian banks are likely to take a cautious and gradual approach to capital managemen...
News that Sigve Brekke (ex-CEO of Telenor) is joining CP Group as the Chairman of its Digital Operations across Thailand and SE Asia is a meaningful positive for both TRUE and Telenor; brief thoughts & implications for both below.
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Ample Domestic Catalysts: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Dec 24. Jan 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, SP Setia, VSI and Yinson. SINGAP...
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
Shares of TRUE were subdued during these two days after the Supreme Court had dismissed TRUE’s appeal against the Central Administrative Court’s decision to enforce payment related to long-distance domestic call to National Telecom. Our brief thoughts below.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
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