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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBp200, +85%) Second share buyback program

Airtel Africa has announced a second share buyback program of up to $100m, with the first $50m tranche starting today until the 24th of April 2025. This is positive news and as we wrote HERE reflects the strength of execution of AAF

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

TRUE (Buy, TP: THB18, +70%) TRUE Corp – Ongoing long distance domesti...

Shares of TRUE were subdued during these two days after the Supreme Court had dismissed TRUE’s appeal against the Central Administrative Court’s decision to enforce payment related to long-distance domestic call to National Telecom. Our brief thoughts below.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBp200, +88%) Strength of execution

Airtel Africa is the outperformer among African portfolio telcos. Investors may be surprised at the extent of this outperformance which we highlight in this note.

Paula Ruth
  • Paula Ruth

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - EXCL And FREN Agree To Merge (Pre-synergy EV Of ...

EXCL and FREN have agreed to a proposed merger, with a combined pre-synergy enterprise value of Rp104t (around US$6.5b). Telcos’ consolidation typically supports a healthier data pricing environment in the long term. The potential negative sentiment from FREN’s performance (9M24 loss) may have been priced into EXCL’s share price already, in our view, as EXCL’s share price fell 8% to Rp2,380 on 16 May after the nonbinding MoU of the merger was announced. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp3,200.

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Paula Ruth

Indonesia Daily - Thursday, December 12, 2024

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,240/Target: Rp3,200): EXCL and FREN agree to merge (pre-synergy EV of Rp104t, or around US$6.5b). TRADERS’ CORNER Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): Technical BUY

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+12)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, December 12, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: 1H25 outlook shaped by implications of fiscal stimuli and US tariffs. Results Huize Holding (HUIZ US/BUY/US$4.09/Target: US$7.00): 3Q24: Turning profitable again due to strong FYP growth. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,240/Target: Rp3,200): EXCL and FREN agree to merge (pre-synergy EV of Rp104t, or around US$6.5b). MALAYSIA Sector Banking: The sector delivered a solid 3Q24 earnings growth of 11% yoy. However, this was largely driven by volatile tradi...

Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum

Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformed In Nov 24 Due To CTRA’s 20% Dro...

Thanks to the 20.1% decline of CTRA, our portfolio underperformed in Nov 24. Our selection delivered an average 7.3% decline compared to JCI’s 6.1% decline. Excluding CTRA’s weak return, our portfolio actually delivered a 5.8% decline. Only ASII delivered a flat return (0%). Losers are: CTRA (-20.1%), BBRI (-11.5%), BBTN (-8.5%), BMRI (-8.2%), JSMR (-8.2%), NCKL (-7.2%), BBNI (-5.3%), CMRY (-1.8%) and EXCL (-1.3%). Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII.

Hendri Effendi ... (+3)
  • Hendri Effendi
  • Johnny Yum
  • Stevanus Juanda

Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Strategy: Alpha Picks: Underperformed In Nov 24 Due To CTRA’s 20% Drop: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ): Technical BUY

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+17)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kate Luang
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, December 03, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....

BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
2199 REGINA MIRACLE INTERNATIONAL
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
ELITE ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
AL2SI 2CRSI SA
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
BRMI BOAT ROCKER MEDIA INC.
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Thai Telcos Q3 24 review: Likely to beat full year guidance as market...

Despite Q3 being a seasonally weaker period, the industry delivered a better service revenue and EBITDA performance. Mobile improved on better prepaid numbers from AIS. Given how strong YTD numbers have been, it is very likely both will beat guidance. We stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Q2 FY25 review: Renewed acceleration off tariff hike, F...

Indian mobile revenue growth accelerated to mid-teens on the back of the tariff hike in July, with EBITDA margin expansion across all three operators.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+20)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Paula Ruth
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, November 22, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...

Paula Ruth
  • Paula Ruth

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - 3Q24: EBITDA Up 6% yoy; Becomes Second-Largest P...

We maintain BUY on EXCL with a new target price of Rp3,200 due to several factors: a) Indonesia’s fibre penetration is underpenetrated compared with the average in Southeast Asian countries, b) EXCL recently became the second-largest player in Indonesia’s FBB market, c) strong NPAT growth of 25% yoy in 2025, and d) EXCL trades at a relatively undemanding valuation (below -0.75SD of EV/EBITDA). EXCL’s 9M24 EBITDA reached Rp 13.3t, in line with our and consensus expectations.

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Paula Ruth

Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 22, 2024

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,210/Target: Rp3,200): 3Q24: EBITDA up 6% yoy; becomes second-largest player in Indonesia’s fixed broadband market. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY United Tractors (UNTR IJ): Technical BUY

Greater China Research Team ... (+5)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks – November 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Gearing Up For The Reporting Season: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Oct 24. Nov 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Top Glove, VSI and Yinson...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB CP ALL
SDPL SIME DARBY PLANTATION BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
CVL CIVMEC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STM SEATRIUM LTD
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
YINSON YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
GEELY GEELY AUTOMOBILE
Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum

Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24

Our aggressive stance in Oct 24 did not work out, due to softness in bank stocks and weakness in some of our picks. Our portfolio declined by an average of 1.9% compared with the JCI’s 0.6% rise. Winners: ASII (+1.0%), CMRY (+0.9%), CTRA (+0.8%). Losers: SIDO (-8.3%), BMRI (-3.2%), BBTN (-3.1%), BBRI (-3.0%), EXCL (-1.7%), JSMR (-1.6%) and BBNI (-0.9%). We add NCKL and drop SIDO. Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII.

Johnny Yum ... (+5)
  • Johnny Yum
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Paula Ruth
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Stevanus Juanda

Indonesia Daily - Monday, November 4, 2024

Strategy: Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,650/Target: Rp8,120): 3Q24: Net profit up 11.7% qoq on strong loan growth and lower CoC. Upgrade to BUY. Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ/BUY/Rp1,565/Target: Rp1,800): 3Q24: Core NPAT rises 24% yoy; in line with expectations. Upgrade to BUY. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp2,780/Target: Rp4,200): 3Q24: IndiHome, as fixed broadband market leader, gro...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+19)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Paula Ruth
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...

TWOU 2U INC.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

5G FWA in EM Hold on for a massive acceleration in FWA demand, Bharti...

When Jio announced it was targeting 100m 5G FWA customers we said this was likely to be game changing for the industry globally, and so it is proving.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Broadband upgraded as FWA takes off; Bharti price targe...

Jio’s recent FWA figures suggest India is entering an S-curve of adoption. We think this means Jio is set to capture the lion’s share of a $20bn revenue industry (by 2030). Bharti is likely to benefit strongly too.

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