SK Telecom saw revenue accelerate again on the back of B2B Enterprise demand. Mobile also kept steady as the environment stayed benign. Notably, capex spend remains disciplined while operating profit was up 7.1% YoY off lower depreciation and continued cost control. The recently announced Corporate Value Up plan was largely expected.
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
With the company unlikely to have been able to engineer a meaningful recovery by the end of the moratorium on payments to the govt, and the stock trading below the level at which it can issue new shares, we see the most likely outcome now as creeping nationalisation. Bad for VIL, but great for Bharti and Jio. We discuss implications for Indus in a separate note out today.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
Group service revenue and EBITDA trends were softer in Q2, beset by slower Enterprise growth and a one-off labour cost hike by KT. By contrast, mobile improved to 2.1% YoY, led by SKT and KT. Given the benign mobile landscape and the removal of Stage X’s mobile license, we expect trends to sustain at current levels. Capex spend is under control while quarterly dividends were unchanged. Separately, we have trimmed our target prices for SKT and LG Uplus; KT remains our preferred pick.
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
SK Telecom saw an acceleration in topline while underlying EBITDA came in 2% ahead. Encouragingly, mobile trends improved on better mix and rise in roaming users while Enterprise, a key focus area, expanded its contribution to near 10% of overall revenue. Focus on AI continues to hold back shareholder remuneration however we think.
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
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