reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +39%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 24 Quick take: Slow start...
MTN Rwanda has reported a slower set of Q1 numbers. Revenue and EBITDA continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and margins were also impacted by the One Network Area initiative and to a lesser extent by the depreciating RWF vs. the USD.
- Soomit Datta
VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline E...
Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +24%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q1s, trending ahead o...
TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Ghana – Q1 24: Good start to the year
MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q1 results. Service revenue growth accelerated and continued to grow well above inflation. EBITDA trends slowed but remain solid. Capex intensity was down vs. Q1 last year. Medium guidance for Service Revenue growth (“high twenties %”) has been reiterated. The macro is expected to remain challenging in 2024. However, there has been an encouraging slow down in inflation over Q1.
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest i...
H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 23 review: Outperformance by China Telecom; bullish...
China Telecom was the clear outperformer for service revenue growth this quarter and for the full year too, driven by an acceleration in Enterprise. Industry EBITDA trend was less upbeat in Q4 as China Mobile and Unicom declined. Both capex and dividend guidance were bullish; industry capex expected to lower by 5% while payout is expected to trend above 75% over the next three years (by 2026) for China Mobile and China Telecom.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR200, +135%) MTN Rwanda – Q4 23 Quick take: Good unde...
MTN Rwanda has reported a solid set of Q4 numbers on an underlying basis (NSRe). Reported service revenue growth decelerated vs. Q3 impacted by the MTR cuts but EBITDA growth accelerated. Mid-term guidance for service revenue growth has been reiterated (“mid-teens service growth”) and the company targets a stable EBITDA margin.
- James Ratzer
Telecom Italia (Buy, €0.35, +58%) Piecing together the puzzle post-CMD
We recently attended the Telecom Italia CMD in person and the management dinner afterwards. Given the stock fell by 20%+, it’s fair to say the event didn’t quite go as initially planned. In this note we review the situation now the dust has settled a bit, and now we feel we have better visibility on the key drivers behind the operational forecasts and the below-the-line cash items.
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +27%) TIM B - Improving cash returns, though t...
TIM Brasil updated on its cash return policy today, targeting ~BRL12 billion of shareholder returns from 2024-26. This is a strongly improving trend (BRL2.9 billion for 2023), annualizing out at a 9% yield in Brazil (where headline interest rates are falling sharply) and we see this as very supportive for the equity when combined with the strong fundamentals. At the same time, TIM will remain net cash (ex leases) over this forecast period and we see a bigger day of reckoning coming for the Brazi...
- James Ratzer
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indian Mobile Q3 FY24 review: Still tracking well even without tariff...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti and Jio improving at the expense of VIL. Industry ARPU tracked MSD again even without any meaningful tariff hikes; we expect increases to be put through in 2H CY24 though that has largely been priced in. EBITDA continue to trend ahead of topline, with YoY margins improvement across the board. Earlier last month, the government also approved the auction for 10,523 MHz of spectrum which starts from INR 963bn (USD 11.6bn). However, w...
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR200, +134%) MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana – Q4 23: Solid...
MTN Nigeria reported Q4 results on Friday and held its earnings call yesterday. For our take on the results, including call feedback please click on the link below. We also provide our take on MTN Ghana which reported Q4s a day before MTN Nigeria.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing t...
Following a very strong H2 2023, Bharti has retraced nearly INR 100/share. We remain bullish and would see the sell-down as a buying opportunity. Consensus forecasts continue to look too low to us; in this note we focus on the consumer margin, which we think is likely to surprise to the upside.
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