reports
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a w...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with EBITDA c+0.4% ahead of consensus. Guidance has all been reiterated, and cost synergy numbers for Spain have been lifted (with new additional revenue synergy numbers given, that are based on intra-company churn switching data, which makes it plausible some could be delivered in our view).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to ...
The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positi...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with EBITDA c1.5% ahead of consensus for Q4. France guidance for 2024 EBITDA has been lifted, and overall Group guidance is in-line at EBITDA and 3% ahead at OCF. Ex energy, Group EBITDA is growing at >4%. Comments on the call about the Digi remedy package are very positive for European in-market consolidation in our view.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
- TMT Team
- Russell Waller
Remedy package signed in Spain: Not as bad as the headline would sugge...
The decision that we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Orange Masmovil and Digi have reached an agreement for a remedy package in Spain. We provide our thoughts on the package in this piece. The headline “Digi buying spectrum” is bad, but we think that the reality and specifics of the package are nowhere near as bad as the headline would suggest.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Decent quarter in a challenging macro en...
Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
YPF YPF SA SPONSORED ADR CLASS D
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
NYCB NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC.
NTCT NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC.
MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
MGPI MGP INGREDIENTS INC.
KR KROGER CO.
GPRE GREEN PLAINS INC.
GOGO GOGO INC.
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
CNK CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC.
BIIB BIOGEN INC.
TKO. TASEKO MINES LIMITED
MDU MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
VODJ VODAFONE GROUP PLC (ADR)
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
A2H5RW ERO COPPER
NABL N-ABLE
WDS INC.
CLB WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD
TH CORE LABORATORIES INC
THERATECHNOLOGIES INC.
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
Vodacom (Neutral, TP: ZAR140, +35%) Q2 24: Top line in line, but disa...
Vodacom reported a mixed set of results, service revenue came in in line with consensus but EBITDA and HEPS missed. Revenue trends in SA slightly improved in Q2 vs. Q1 but trends in International slowed. EBITDA trends (on a normalised basis) slowed in H1 24 vs. H2 23 but EBITDA performance is expected to be better next semester.
- James Ratzer
The biggest decision you haven't heard of
While the Masmovil-Orange decision is probably the biggest upcoming decision you have heard of, the biggest decision for the European telecoms industry that most people haven’t heard of, is coming up next month at the World Radio Congress : the longer-term use for the 6.4-7.1GHz band in Europe.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +30%) Q3 23: Good delivery, EBITDA growth >3%...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with results almost exactly in-line with consensus expectations at revenue and EBITDA. All guidance has been reiterated. In that regard, these results will not set the pulse racing but solid delivery is something we admire. Ex energy and FX, EBITDA is growing >3% y/y, which is pretty good, and means Orange is well on the way to reach medium-term EBITDA and FCF guidance as well as the nearer-term goals.
- Thomas Coudry
Feedback from RS with CFO: delivering the 2025 plan
Following the roadshow we hosted with the group's new CFO Laurent Martinez last week and our latest discussions ahead of Q3 results, we reaffirm our Buy conviction on the stock with an unchanged PT at EUR13, pointing to 18% upside. Laurent Martinez, who officially joined Orange in early September,
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
South African Telcos CY23 1H review – Growth still resilient but marg...
The environment remained tough for the South African operators in the first half of 2023. Loadshedding was high and impacted revenue (especially voice) and increased opex. Market service revenue was sequentially stable (up 1.6% YoY in H1 23), but EBITDA growth and margins deteriorated as telcos turned to backup batteries and power generators, and additional security solutions.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Good performance in a challenging macro ...
Q2 was a good quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators which continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. Trends accelerated across the board in Nigeria as well as in the other geographies, margins were decent and the capex intensity slowed this quarter.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.