Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

Catching its breath - down to HOLD

We estimate Q1 EBIT of NOK 1,650m (-4% vs. FactSet cons). '24e EBIT -7% as weak biology offsets higher spot prices. Limited upside after share price rally; down to HOLD.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK145, +14%) Q1 24: Good numbers, impressive FCF g...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR and EBITDA c1% ahead, and FCF 49% ahead. FY24 guidance has not been lifted (but has been reiterated) despite the good Q1 numbers, with phasing of payments/items to impact FCF throughout the rest of the year, and this is perhaps a little disappointing, but momentum is clearly with Telenor at present, and if current trends persist, then guidance and estimates will move up.

EBITDA-capex 3% above, strong FCF

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Happy to put Q1 behind us

Alligo’s Q1 results were mixed, with the model far from immune to weak markets but now more integrated and enhanced, positioning the company for profitable growth when demand recovers. We find its >10% EBITA margin target ambitious but realistic in a 2026e perspective, and see an industrial roll-up case evolving with recent acquisitions at attractive valuations. We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Aker BP : Q1 results beat expectations, pressure on cash and few catal...

>Operating profit 4% higher than expected - Aker BP released its Q1 2024 results showing revenues fully in line with expectations but EBITDA and EBIT 4% higher than expected at $ 2.8bn (-17.7% q-o-q) and € 2.2bn (+1.9% q-o-q), respectively. Net profit was 13% higher than expected at $ 531m, boosted by a tax rate of 75% vs 92% in Q4. CFFO was virtually flat at $ 1.45bn and FCF was down -26% to $ 339m.Good operating performance but upcoming maintenance st...