What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 1Q25 results that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. OMS could return to double-digit growth, while e-commerce GMV growth could remain resilient as Kuaishou continues to provide traffic support to high quality merchants. AI monetization could continue to progress well driven by a higher subscriber base for Kling AI. We maintain our PT at HKD70. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q24 revs that were slightly below consensus and our expectations. OMS could further decelerate in 1Q partly due to tougher comps in gaming and continued traffic support to merchants. AI monetization could continue to inch up partly driven by a higher subscriber base for Kling AI. We up our PT from HKD60 to HKD70 on multiples rerating related to AI. Our updated PT of HKD70 implies 14.0x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. OMS could decelerate in 4Q partly due to impact on closed-loop ads as Kuaishou continue to provide merchant traffic support during the major promotion event. Kuaishou would also continue to invest in subsidies related to short plays, e-commerce and local services in 4Q. We lower our PT from HKD70 to HKD60 on lowered outlook. Our updated PT of HKD60 implies 11.8x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY...
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 1Q24 results that top consensus and our expectations. OMS could remain resilient partly driven by closed-loop ads and continued recovery in external ads. Margins could further improve YoY in FY24 amid a better revenue mix and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q23 revs were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. User traffic could remain healthy as Kuaishou could reach 400mn DAU by 2H24. Margins could also continue to see upside partly driven by better rev mix and improved efficiency in marketing spending. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q total revenues partly due to slowdown in gaming (recognized in other revenues), but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees, server + bandwidth, and S&M related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 4Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
MSCI China rose only 2.3% mom in November while the HSI shed 0.4% mom over the same period, despite positive newsflow for the real estate sector. Investors preferred to sell into strength, as concerns over China’s slow economic growth remain. Looking ahead, the mid-Dec 23 Economic Work Conference may provide positive surprises and with MSCI China trading at 12-month forward PE of 9.3x, risk is skewed to the upside. We add CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical to our BUY list.
What's new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations driven by resiliency in ads. User traffic could remain healthy where DAU could grow by low-single digit YoY, while average daily time spent could remain above 120 mins in 4Q. Margins could see further upside partly driven by better efficiency in marketing spending and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD 95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Kuaishou’s 3Q23 results saw a solid earnings beat. Revenue increased 21% yoy to Rmb27.9b, in line with the street’s estimates. Gross profit margin improved 5ppt yoy to 52%. Non-IFRS profit for the period was Rmb3.2b, compared with Rmb2.7b in 2Q23, beating the street’s estimates. Management also guided for a solid 4Q23 with mid-teens yoy revenue growth. The company remains confident about achieving Rmb2t in ecommerce GMV by 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$97.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Industrial Automation Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00) 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66) 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and...
GREATER CHINA Sector Industrial Automation: Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00): 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66): 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and good momen...
2023’s 11.11 ended with alleviated GMV growth against a soft macro backdrop and intense competitive landscape. Live-streaming e-commerce and adtech upgrades remain key growth catalysts in the e-commerce sector. We opine that the reduced vitality of 11.11 this year stems from rational consumption behaviours and increased consumption of quality products. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT due to lukewarm macro outlook and brutal price wars undermining the profitability of e-commerce companies.
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
Taobao, JD, PDD and Kuaishou kicked off pre-sales/11.11 promotions on 24, 23, 20 and 18 October respectively. 11.11 pre-sales data showed signs of pent-up demand release following pressured 3Q23 NBS consumption data. To revitalise the soft macro environment, multiple platforms have adopted low price strategies for users to acquire high-value products at more affordable prices. We remain upbeat on China’s ecommerce sector pending an encouraging recovery in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
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