reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Telecom Infrastructure – Recovery across the board
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex rebounded, up 13% YoY, driving a strong recovery across the value chain—from fixed and mobile equipment to semiconductors. Nokia remains our top pick in the sector.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €4.0, +12%) Q4 24: B2C SR outlook is a concern – res...
KPN has reported a slightly weak set of numbers with SR -0.7% light and EBITDAaL -0.2% below consensus expectations. Guidance for 2025 EBITDAaL is in-line with medium-term ambitions but c0.5% below consensus that was ahead of those targets. Adjusting for the various M&A deals, B2C SR is weaker at +1.0% y/y from +2.7% y/y, with B2C mobile +0.3% y/y from +6.7% y/y and B2C fixed +1.3% y/y from +1.0% y/y. Given the slowdown here, and the slightly disappointing EBITDA guidance, we think Neutral remai...
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €3.7, -1%) Q2 24: Priced for perfection, and this w...
KPN has reported a good set of numbers with EBITDAaL c+1% ahead of consensus expectations and FCF ahead too; however, if one strips out assets sales from EBITDAaL (which KPN says one shouldn’t as guidance includes them (which is new news to us)), then EBITDAaL missed by c-1%. Adjusting for the various M&A deals, underlying SR trends are similar to Q1 for B2C and B2B, but wholesale is weaker than expected.
- Ben Rickett
EU Towers KPN/ APG transaction – pushing back on onerous leases
This morning KPN announced that they will combine their remaining tower assets with Open Tower Company, consolidating a new enlarged TowerCo. This is the first example of a European MNO buying back into towers; partly motivated by KPN wanting to renegotiate their MSA with OTC and to gain greater leverage in future MSA renegotiations (primarily with Cellnex). In this Quick Take we discuss valuation and implications for the EU Towers sector.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Odido (T-Mobile NL) Q3 23: Fixed revenue growth accelerates again; sp...
Odido reported Q3 23 results today. SR trends are good, but slowed slightly thanks to mobile; fixed revenue growth though accelerated again to +12.9% y/y from +10.9% y/y in Q2 23, and on the call Odido said that it expected net adds to be higher in 2024 than in 2023.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €3.8, +16%) Feedback from NDR with CFO and CEO
We recently hosted KPN CEO Joost Farwerck and KPN CFO Chris Figee for a post Q2 roadshow. We provide feedback in this report. All-in-all, we continue to think that KPN is one of, if not the best high quality safe haven names in the sector. We see a possible upside opportunity over the medium-term as OpEx and capex falls post the fibre roll finishing.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Buy, TP: €4.0, +32%) Q4 22: Slightly weaker 2023 EBITDAal guidan...
KPN has reported a solid set of results vs consensus expectations, and revenue trends are encouraging, but new 2023 EBITDAal guidance is for €2,410m, +0.2% y/y vs guidance at the Q3s of 0%-2% growth y/y, and is -0.5% below consensus of €2,421m. In effect the guidance range has been cut to 0%-1% from 0%-2%, due to a higher-than-expected labour agreement and slightly worse than expected competitive environment in fixed.
- Russell Waller
New Street: KPN (Buy, TP: €3.8, +15%) Q1 22: Strong start to the year...
KPN has reported a strong set of results, with a good EBITDA result (c+0.8% vs consensus, that had been raised into the quarter), better mass-market SR trends, +2.5% y/y from +2.0% y/y (SME revenues now at +9.1% y/y), and 20%+ FCF beat.
- Russell Waller
- Guy Sips
- Jeroen Van Den Bossche
- Ruben Devos
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
Morning Note: ADYEN NA, AVTX NA, FLOB BB, HYL BB, KPN NA, REC BB
Adyen: Adding financial products to the offering Avantium: Close of financing package for FDCA plant Floridienne: FY21 : Successful integration of recent acquisitions Hyloris: Financing the repurposing pivot KPN: Proposal to lower fiber wholesale rates by >10-30% Recticel: Closing divestment of Bedding
- Russell Waller
TEL2 B TELE2 AB CLASS B
TEL TELENOR ASA
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
SCMN SWISSCOM AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
ELISA ELISA
ORA ORANGE
TELIA TELIA COMPANY
VOD LN VODAFONE GROUP
BT BRITISH TELECOM
KPN KONINKLIJKE KPN NV
- Ruben Devos
KPN - High-fiber snack KPN NA
This note will explore the business case for fiber, following KPN’s ramp-up of investment, with the aim to reach 80% coverage in the Neths by 2026. Apart from building a separate P&L for KPN’s standalone fiber activities and its JV with APG, we’ll also look at the competitive fiber landscape in the Neths. While we believe the market is warming to the idea that fiber can create value in the long-term, we still think it discounts the upside of KPN having the largest footprint in the Neths, a netwo...
- Russell Waller
- Guy Sips
- Olivier Vandewoude
- Ruben Devos
- Russell Waller
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
- Soomit Datta
New Street: European Telecoms Outlook still looks good for 2022
Most people will say European Telecoms hasn’t had a good 2021 – underperforming the market by 8%. However, it had its best absolute performance since 2015; outperformed the US telcos; seen more guidance upgrades vs. downgrades, record high M&A volumes and improving service revenue growth.
- Guy Sips
- Ruben Devos
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Morning Note; ABI BB, GREEN BB, INTER EN, KPN NA, SEQUA BB, UMI BB
AB InBev: medium term guidance of 4-8% org EBITDA growth Greenyard: Upcoming CMD : expect a new ‘Strategy 2030’ Intertrust: CSC commits to bid at € 20 KPN: Glaspoort extends fiber rollout Sequana Medical: Completion of patient enrolment in POSEIDON trial Umicore: Flemish minister dismisses Hoboken appeal Various: Small & Mid Cap Conference book
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