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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q25

​​​​We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 243 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tesla 1Q26 delivery preview: signs of stabilization

Tesla will report 1Q26 deliveries on Thursday. Please see the link below for our expectations.

Anish Jog ... (+7)
  • Anish Jog
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Scott Devitt
  • Steven Wahrhaftig
Anish Jog ... (+7)
  • Anish Jog
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Scott Devitt
  • Steven Wahrhaftig
Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tesla & SpaceX announce Terafab. Our thoughts

Tesla and SpaceX/xAI jointly unveiled Terafab over the weekend, a vertically integrated semiconductor fab bringing logic, memory, and advanced packaging under one roof.

Tesla, Inc. - December 2025 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Autos: Correction progressing; awaiting inflection. Bible 4Q25

Today, we are publishing the Auto section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry. Auto demand came in above expectations. Semiconductor revenue growth remains muted as cu...

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Takeaways from Agentic Commerce Advisor Call

ChatGPT is winning share of the discovery phase, but final purchase behaviors remain on merchant-owned sites. According to our expert, the initial industry theory suggested chatbots would benefit from consumer preferences for an experience that handled discovery to purchase within a single flow. La

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (VI): Who pays for all these Enterprise...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look into who pays for all these Enterprise Cloud AI bills. Note: For our latest estimates, please see updates to the slides published earlier this week; we are refining our numbers in real time as we progress in this...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (V): How can frontier labs fund rising ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look into how frontier labs can absorb rising compute costs in 2027 and beyond. Note: For our latest estimates, please see updates to the slides published earlier this week; we are refining our numbers in real time as...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (IV): How can hyperscalers swallow so m...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look into how Hyperscaler P&Ls can absorb 2026 capex, and extend the perspective into the end of the decade. Note: For our latest estimates, please see updates to the slides published earlier this week; we are refinin...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 4Q25 - Industrials: upcycle in full swing

Today, we are publishing the industrials section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Industrial semiconductor revenue growth accelerated to 23% YoY in 4Q25. Industry commentary points to continued momentum through 2026.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (III): Who will pay for cloud?

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we will try to address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. We follow-up today with the third analysis. Note: For our latest estimates, please see updates to the slides published earlier this week; we are refining our numbers in real time as we progress in this work.

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