• Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y. • This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. • This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inven...
• You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections. • With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot. • See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.
Tesla will likely miss expectations when it releases production and delivery numbers in two weeks because of production issues in its Fremont, Berlin, and Shanghai fabs. However, looking ahead, there are signs that pricing is stabilizing. We therefore expect Tesla to exit 1Q24 on a positive margin trajectory and see upside to consensus expectations for the rest of the year and beyond.
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