In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results (here) and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are slightly lower broadband losses and higher FCF in 2025. No change to thesis. Price target is $37 (+12%).
In this note we provide our thoughts on connectivity revenue and EBITDA, the changes in pricing strategy, broadband ARPU growth and wireless net adds in back half of the year, fiber overbuilds, savings from tax reforms and usage of the proceeds. Finally, we touch on what to do with the stock.
We have updated the model following results. Changes to the segments are not material, but changes to capex, cash taxes and free cash flow in light of the OBBBA are. For thoughts following the call, click here. For a review of results, click here. (Rating: Buy; TP: $32; Total Return: +20%).
In this note we cover evolving thoughts on the implications of the new Cable MVNO, the implications of AT&T’s revised capital allocation decisions, new insights on the pace of fiber deployment, a shift in the FWA strategy, the implications of both for cable, comments on spectrum purchases, the implications for EchoStar, and an early take on mobile and broadband market growth.
Postpaid phone adds beat estimates, which will come as a relief following Verizon’s results. Service revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and FCF were all slightly better than expected. The Company increased FCF guidance following OBBBA, but by less than some had hoped. In addition, the Company did not commit to increasing share repurchases with the increased FCF.
A director at Roku Inc sold/sold after exercising options 212,559 shares at 95.000USD and the significance rating of the trade was 93/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over th...
Charter and Comcast announced that they have signed an MVNO with T-Mobile that will target new business customers (here). In this quick note we provide thoughts on implications for Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, Comcast, and the industry more broadly.
As the Skydance/Paramount deal has demonstrated, the Trump FCC will address media transactions through a political lens. In this note, we discuss the implications for the sector of FOX potentially finding itself in the same position as CSMCA and DIS when it comes to the upcoming media consolidation, as well as other implications of the Colbert Affair and the federal defunding of PBS.
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Prime-2 short term rating to the new commercial paper program of Netflix, Inc. (Netflix). Netflix's existing A3 senior unsecured notes ratings and the positive rating outlook remain unchanged. The Prime-2 rating reflects our expectation that Netflix will mainta...
In our first take on tonight’s results, we dig into: 1. Steady beat and raise driven by FX, good fundamentals and late 2Q surge 2. Ad revenue still expected to double this year, multiple levers improving 3. 1H25 engagement report shows viewing per member slightly down 4. TF1 deal adds new vector for content strategy, no details on terms, including ads
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