reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the new share repurchase guidance for 2025, and why it fell short of our estimates; the implications of the share repurchase guidance on M&A; comments that speak to the likelihood of a Lumen fiber acquisition; the impact of tariffs on costs and capex, and potentially on mobile industry growth; the puts and takes to EBITDA, and why it wasn’t quite as good as it first seemed; and comments on FWA capacity.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile's most recent price moves suggest rising competition
What’s new: Verizon reported mid-single-digit growth in gross adds after amending their offers in mid-March and double-digit growth in gross adds after launching a three-year price guarantee in April. T-Mobile responded with new plans that include a five-year price guarantee this morning. We cover implications for the industry in this quick comment.
- Blair Levin
BEAD Data Shows CMSCA Active in Many States
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Philip Burnett
A Signal for 1Q25 in AT&T FirstNet Connections?
FirstNet announced this morning that it has over 7MM FirstNet Connections as of 1Q25. That is up from 6.7MM connections at the end of 2024. Because of rounding, FirstNet net adds could be 275k-325k in 1Q25; this is generally in line with quarterly FirstNet adds over the past four years. While AT&T doesn't regularly disclose the split, at 2Q23 earnings they said that just over a third of FirstNet net adds were postpaid phones (the rest are non-phone devices). We would assume that there were 90k-1...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Philip Burnett
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
T-Mobile Announces Proposed Public Offering of Senior Notes
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) (“T-Mobile”) announced today that T-Mobile USA, Inc., its direct wholly-owned subsidiary (“T-Mobile USA” or the “Issuer”), plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, senior notes (the “notes”) in a registered public offering. T-Mobile USA intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include among other things, share repurchases, any dividends declared by T-Mobile’s Board of Directors and refinancing of existing indebtedness on an ongoing basis. Barclays Capital Inc.,...
T-Mobile Finalizing Sale of 800 MHz Spectrum Portfolio to Leading Priv...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) today announced it has reached an agreement in principle to divest the company’s 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to purchaser , a leading private investment firm focused on digital infrastructure and solutions to the global broadband industry. In partnership with energy and infrastructure experts from , Grain is planning to market the 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to utilities, other critical infrastructure industry operators, rural and regional operators, and other enterprises, meeting crucial unfulfilled telecommunications needs. Consumers a...
T-Mobile to Host Q1 2025 Earnings Call on April 24, 2025
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) looks forward to discussing first quarter 2025 financial and operational results on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (ET). The call will be accessible via dial-in with pre-registration as well as a webcast link on the Company’s Investor Relations website at . The earnings release, Investor Factbook, and other related materials will be available at approximately 4:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at . Earnings Call Information Date/Time Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. (ET) Access via Webcast The e...
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