reports
- Tian Hou
BABA: Positive On Longer-Term Outlook As China’s Economy Is Showing Si...
BABA will report FY4Q24 results on May 14th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We believe BABA’s FY4Q24E performance is likely to be in line, but we are positive about the longer-term outlook. BABA is adopting a new strategy focusing on user acquisitions for each business unit, including e-commerce business, cloud business, cross-border commerce, and local services. The company started to use low prices and subsidies. As such, while we expect BABA’s business to resume grow...
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - May 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SE SEA ADS
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
333 MIDEA GROUP
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
2013 WEIMOB INC
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
KEX KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
SUNWAY SUNWAY BHD
ESSO ESSO THAILAND PCL
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 4QFY24 preview: Solid CMR and AIDC growth; la...
Alibaba saw solid consumption momentum in Jan-Feb 24 on its platform and slight moderation in March with its continuous focus on user needs. We expect revenue to grow 6% yoy for 4QFY24, fuelled by better CMR growth. For FY25, Alibaba will continue to focus on user experience and investment in AIDC to foster revenue growth amid a highly competitive environment. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$92.00 (US$92.00).
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Thursday, April 11, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector IT Hardware AI Hardware: Elevated investment to bolster investor confidence. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$70.50/Target: HK$92.00) 4QFY24 preview: Solid CMR and AIDC growth; lacklustre profitability. TRADERS’ CORNER Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.48-3.58 China Gas Holdings Limited (384 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$7.90-8.00
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Rewarding shareholders in 2023; emerging strategic gro...
Given the stabilising revenue growth and abundant cash on hand, mega-cap internet companies have been focusing on offering generous shareholder returns. For 2024, we expect consumption behaviour to switch to service and experience, which will continue to benefit OTA players. We believe other China internet names will outperform with overseas expansion and SFV players will continue to gain market shares with potential for take rate increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 PINDUODUO PDD US
02423 BAIDU INC
09961 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - April 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SE SEA ADS
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
333 MIDEA GROUP
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
2013 WEIMOB INC
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
KEX KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
SUNWAY SUNWAY BHD
ESSO ESSO THAILAND PCL
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Looming US import ban amid encouraging growth trajecto...
Temu achieved strong user engagement growth after sponsoring the Super Bowl in the US in February. We lift our global 2024 GMV forecast for Temu to US$38b from US$34b previously in view of the strong sales growth in Jan-Feb 24 boosted by the Super Bowl. We expect the launch of the new semi-entrusted model in March to further contribute to GMV growth in 2024. To defend against the potential US policy risks, Temu is expected to pivot its focus on Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - March 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
Z74 MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MAPI SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 MITRA ADIPERKASA
AP4 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
ADRO RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
601888 PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
PTTGC CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
TLKM PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ROTI PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
M4B NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
SE CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SEA ADS
INRI COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
PTTEP-R INARI AMERTRON BHD
BAL PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
SCGB BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
KPJ SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
SMM KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
3933 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MINT THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
BURSA MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
MSGB BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
IOI MAH SING GROUP BHD
CPALL TB IOI CORP BHD
ECW CP ALL
GENM ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
MAHB GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
06098 MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
01801 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
2013 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
EKO WEIMOB INC
RGB EKOVEST BHD
SCB-R RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
709 SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
FEH GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
1199 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
601138 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
FRKN FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
MPM FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MRDIY MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
09988 MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09999 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
2696 NETEASE INC
KEX SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
OR KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
TIDLOR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
1209 NGERN TID LOR PCL
BUKA CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
CVL BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 CIVMEC
PDD KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 PINDUODUO PDD US
BBTN BAIDU INC
BBNI BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
EXCL BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CLAS PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
SMGR CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
NATGATE SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NCKL NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
SUNWAY PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
ESSO SUNWAY BHD
HUME ESSO THAILAND PCL
09961 HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
BTG CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Tian Hou
BABA: Adjusting To Cope With Weaker Business Environment; Recovering A...
BABA will report FY3Q24 results on February 7th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We believe BABA’s FY3Q24E performance is likely to be in line, but we are positive for the 2024 outlook. While China's economy in 2023 showed unexpected slow growth, it also provided a low base for 2024. China's economy has its resilience, and it is gradually on its way to recovery. As the e-commerce sector is representative of China's economy, BABA’s performance also showed such recovery. S...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Positive On Margins In FY2Q24E; Slower Topline Growth Has Been P...
We are positive on BABA’s FY2Q24E performance. The slower than expected economic recovery has put pressure on BABA and other e-commerce companies in China. The central government’s economic stimulus did not officially come until August 2023 as a decision was made from the Politburo Meeting on Economy on July 24th. In the last 10 consecutive months, the central bank has been conducting aggressive MLF (medium-term lending facility) operations. In September alone, MLF was RMB591B. We believe the ab...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Economic Stimulus Could Set In Soon; Positive On FY1Q24E Perform...
We are positive on BABA’s FY1Q24E performance. The long-awaited economic stimulus is likely to come soon. On June 25th, the State Think Tank CMF released its paper “Solidifying Foundation for Recovery, China’s Macroeconomy in 2023” (/imeeting/hyt/detail/29925). The paper not only pointed out 5 main issues but also emphasized that these issues cannot be resolved by themselves. Instead, it will take a set of stimulus measures from the State to fix the problems. We believe the paper sets up the dir...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Favorable Policies And Restructuring Are Likely To Bring Upside ...
While FY4Q23E is likely to continue to be weaker as China’s economy needs time to recover, we are positive on BABA’s FY2024 outlook: 1) policy environment now is favorable – as the economic recovery is now the priority of the government, the government is providing supportive policies and goodwill to show its determination to rejuvenate economic growth; 2) better outlook in FY2024 – with China’s GDP outlook at 5%, consensus for BABA’s FY2024 at 10.4% Y/Y can be conservative; and 3) BABA recently...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Positive On 2023 Outlook On China’s Full Reopening And Governmen...
We are positive on BABA’s CY2023 outlook. After multiple ups and downs in CY2022, CY2023 can be a much better year for China e-commerce companies due to: 1) China is giving up its zero-COVID policy, and the country is fully opening; 2) resetting economic development as the nation’s top priority; and 3) the whole year of 2022 sets a low base for 2023. Specifically for BABA, it is political risk-free now, in our view. As the economic recovery post-COVID has become the priority for the Chinese gove...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Better Performance In FY2Q23 Driven By Improvement In China Reta...
We are positive on BABA’s FY2Q23 performance, which is in line with the macroeconomic improvement in China retail and logistics. Specifically, the sales growth in July and August were better. While China’s economy is still weak, after the 20th Communist Party of China (the 20th CPC), we believe the economy can be more active with more certainties and clearer economic and political directions. One direction, which is quite clear at this point, is to promote domestic demand and consumption. In suc...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Inflection Point For BABA Politically and Economically; Expect V...
In the past two years, Alibaba was considered a risky asset due to political headwind and economic slowdown. However, at this point, we are convinced that these two risks are diminishing at a faster pace. Political risks down - Among the two risks, political risk is the dominant one. From a political risk perspective, Alibaba is the first company to be regulated by Chinese regulators. It has been almost 2 years since October 2020. On April 29, 2022 after its economic meeting, the Politburo issu...
- Tian Hou
BABA: China’s Economic Slowdown Has Been Mostly Priced In; Policy Risk...
BABA will report FY3Q22 results on February 24th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. Starting from December 2021, China’s economy showed significant weakness. For e-commerce, both retail and logistic parcel volumes showed soft growth. As the weakness worsened in January 2022, we believe the government is likely to put stimulus measures in place at a faster pace than expected. Therefore, we are likely to be at the bottom of such economic weakness in China. As a company that...
- Tian Hou
T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group – November & FY3Q22E: Negatives From ...
We are positive on Alibaba’s FY3Q22E performance relative to the Street expectation. BABA’s issues with regulators started from Oct. 2020. Since then, the new regulations have not only impacted BABA, but the entire internet sector in China. As the first company to experience the pressure, we believe BABA is likely to come out of business contraction soon and refocus on growth. The recent internal personnel changes are likely to lead to a relatively decentralized power structure, which we believe...
- Tian Hou
T. H. Data Flash - Alibaba Group – August & FY2Q22E: Fighting Headwind...
We are neutral on Alibaba as it is fighting two fronts: weaker China economy and traffic competition from ByteDance. With its resources and executions, eventually we believe BABA will win the fights. In terms of the Chinese economy, all data is pointing to weaker retail sales growth. The overall social retail growth was 2.5% Y/Y, a decline from 8.5% Y/Y in July and 12.1% Y/Y in June. Express delivery volume growth was 24.3% Y/Y in August, down from 28.6% Y/Y in July and 30.4% in June. At this po...
- Tian Hou
BABA / 9988.HK: Regulatory Uncertainties Still A Concern But It Has Le...
BABA will report FY1Q22 results on August 3rd before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We are neutral on Alibaba due to uncertainties on the regulatory front. However, while dealing with the uncertainties in CY2Q21, BABA was putting in place new measures on both Tmall and Taobao aiming to acquire and retain merchants. We believe these measures are positive for BABA’s growth next year. In the near-term, these measures and BABA’s investments are likely to put pressure on its marg...
- Tian Hou
BABA/9988.HK: Post Chinese Government Anti-Monopoly Fines, BABA Starte...
BABA will report F4Q21 earnings on May 13th before the markets open with a 7:30am EST conference call. We have turned positive on BABA. We believe that as the policy and regulation issues are getting behind BABA, the company is starting a new round of investments, which can be positive for its future growth. For FY4Q21 earnings, based on our data and model, we believe FY4Q21E revenue (Figure 1) is likely to be better than consensus on both the topline and bottom line.
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