March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

CFO is leaving the building

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK286.00) - German optionality at a modest cost

Nordnet unveiled plans to launch in Germany by H2 2026, targeting profitability by 2029; while the latter looks optimistic to us, the SEK100m guided additional annual costs appear modest given the option value inherent in the huge addressable savings market. Near-term, we see plenty of other growth drivers to accelerate inflows and return Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macro tailwinds for retail savers, strong stock markets, and the group’s intensified marketing efforts. We have ...

Awaiting a better entry

NII and transaction income stood out in Q4

Valuation not thrilling enough

Awaiting a second serve

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2025e EPS to defy rate-cut gravity

We expect the accelerating savings and activity trends in Q4 coupled with positive stock market sentiment and macroeconomic tailwinds for Swedish savers to support c10% EPS growth in 2025, despite raised investments and headwinds from lower rates. We have increased our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–6%, leaving us c20% above consensus for these years. We have raised our target price to SEK360 (330) and reiterate our BUY.

Brokerage and NII behind robust Q4 beat

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Fuel for higher growth in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to accelerate Nordnet’s inflows in 2025e and restore it to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macroeconomic tailwinds for household savers, strong equity markets, intensified marketing efforts, and the recent launch of Livrente in Denmark. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK270 (255), and reiterate our BUY.

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Trading made great again

We believe a lingering customer trading activity uptick since the US elections in November coupled with macroeconomic tailwinds for Swedish savers provides good outlook for positive revenue and EPS growth in 2025 despite lower interest rates, contrary to consensus. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–8% and our target price to SEK330 (300) and reiterate our BUY.

December web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity down c5% MOM in December for Avanza and Nordnet, although still high compared to before the US election. We continue to see upside potential on particularly Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to high FX fees from elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their December statistics on 7 January.

Valuation not exciting enough

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Reassuring strategy update

We believe the new long-term strategic priorities given in the Q3 report should have de-risked any concerns over surging IT investments, while also providing a compelling case for continued Swedish growth for years to come. We agree with the bullish Swedish growth outlook, and see upside potential to the new 15% savings capital growth target in the next few years, fuelled by macro tailwinds for Swedish savers. We have made limited EPS changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.