Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Reassuring strategy update

We believe the new long-term strategic priorities given in the Q3 report should have de-risked any concerns over surging IT investments, while also providing a compelling case for continued Swedish growth for years to come. We agree with the bullish Swedish growth outlook, and see upside potential to the new 15% savings capital growth target in the next few years, fuelled by macro tailwinds for Swedish savers. We have made limited EPS changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.

New cost guidance to weigh on the share today

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Decelerating earnings growth on the cards

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Do not discount Sweden yet

The threat of a growth slowdown for Avanza is probably overstated by the market, with fiscal and monetary policy tailwinds set to support still-robust growth in savings in Sweden for 2025–2026e. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), raised our target price to SEK300 (255) and our 2025–2026e EPS by 4–6% (6–9% above consensus).

Ramp-up in IT investments not in the cards

A surfer on the long-term tailwinds

August web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in August being up MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, suggesting a stronger uptick than usual seasonality. Consensus also seems to have overlooked a substantially increased number of trading days in Q3. Based on this, we see upside potential to consensus on Q3e brokerage income for both stocks (more for Avanza). The platforms are due to release their August statistics on 4 September.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK256.00) - Fund fees taking the torch

Facing NII headwinds from rate cuts, we expect fund fees to buoy the revenue trend – so were encouraged by Q2’s positive fund flow trends and stabilising fund margins. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-1% and our target price to SEK256 (254), and reiterate our BUY.

Fairly valued for decelerating growth

Transaction income and NII drove earnings beat in Q2'24. Underlying net earnings up by 1-2% for 2024-26e. Flattish earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 21x – HOLD.

Transaction income & NII drives Q2 beat

Attractive but fairly valued long-term story

Q2 in line with ABGSC expectations. Earnings scenario intact, EPS CAGR of 4% (2023-‘26e). TP kept at SEK 240, reiterate HOLD.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK255.00) - Benign margin trends for now

The main positive takeaways from the Q2 results were continued improvement in the brokerage margin and a stabilisation in the fund margin, both likely aided indirectly by the positive stock market trend YTD. Still, we see some downside risk to the brokerage margin in H2, with the CEO acknowledging current brokerage pricing may not be aligned with its “simplicity” aspiration. We have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK255 (261), and reiterate our HOLD

Higher costs drives small Q2 miss

Q2 trading data better than expected

Activity and deposit development better than expected in Q2. Adj. EPS up by 3-4% driven by higher activity and NII. Growth to come down while valuation is up - HOLD.