Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK293.00) - Firing on all cylinders

Both Q1 revenues and PTP were record-high (both up 11% YOY), powered by strong brokerage income and resilient NII despite falling rates. Activity looks elevated going into Q2, and we see upside potential to NII consensus estimates. The total return profile remains attractive on our expectation of c10% long-term EPS growth and a c5% total yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK293 (274).

A prospering market leader

Q1 beat driven by strong transaction income

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Growth momentum set to continue

Growth momentum set to continue Q1 profits reached a new quarterly all-time high, supported by surging customer activity and particularly strong brokerage income. We believe trading intensity is set to remain elevated in Q2, and see potential for further positive consensus earnings revisions. At a 2025e P/E of c20x, the valuation remains undemanding, in our view. We have raised 2025–2026e EPS by 3–6%, our target price to SEK370 (347), and reiterate our BUY.

Market leader thriving in current environment

Brokerage, FX and cost drives solid Q1 beat

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK274.00) - High on market turbulence

Nordnet looks on track to post its highest profit ever in Q1e, with ongoing market volatility driving the highest trading activity since the pandemic. We continue to see attractive upside potential at a 2025–2026e P/E of c20x, given our expectation of >10% EPS growth from 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by c4% on lower stock market values, and our target price to SEK274 (286), but reiterate our BUY.

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK347.00) -

Avanza is firing on all cylinders due to the persistent market turbulence after the US election. We see reason for sustained high customer engagement given likely continued volatile markets during the Trump presidency and macro tailwinds for Swedish households, setting the stage for solid revenue and EPS growth in 2025, which is still not fully reflected in consensus in our view. We have lowered our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-7% and our target price to SEK347 (360), but reiterate our BUY.

Time to pick up this market leader

Thriving in the current environment

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

CFO is leaving the building

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK286.00) - German optionality at a modest cost

Nordnet unveiled plans to launch in Germany by H2 2026, targeting profitability by 2029; while the latter looks optimistic to us, the SEK100m guided additional annual costs appear modest given the option value inherent in the huge addressable savings market. Near-term, we see plenty of other growth drivers to accelerate inflows and return Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macro tailwinds for retail savers, strong stock markets, and the group’s intensified marketing efforts. We have ...

Awaiting a better entry

NII and transaction income stood out in Q4

Valuation not thrilling enough

Awaiting a second serve

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2025e EPS to defy rate-cut gravity

We expect the accelerating savings and activity trends in Q4 coupled with positive stock market sentiment and macroeconomic tailwinds for Swedish savers to support c10% EPS growth in 2025, despite raised investments and headwinds from lower rates. We have increased our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–6%, leaving us c20% above consensus for these years. We have raised our target price to SEK360 (330) and reiterate our BUY.

Brokerage and NII behind robust Q4 beat