Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December picks, add Baidu and Midea to BUY, and take profit on Li Auto and ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson, JBM Healthcare and PICC P&C.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
China’s internet companies reported resilient 3Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement in the online gaming and OTA sectors, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. Margin pressure in e-commerce due to the intense on-demand delivery competition is likely to ease in 4Q25, but could persist into 2026 given the continuous investment and tough comparison base boosted by the trade-in programme in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Alibaba, Tencent, TCOM, TME, Ne...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
What’s new: NetEase’s reported 3Q25 revs that were below consensus estimates and our expectations. Gaming rev growth could remain resilient partly driven by the launch of new titles and recovery of legacy titles. We maintain our PT at USD150. Analysts: Jin Yoon
NetEase’s 3Q25 results were largely within expectations. Revenue grew 8.2% yoy to Rmb28.4b, 3% below consensus forecast. Gross profit jumped 10.3% yoy to Rmb18.2b, with gross margin rising 1ppt yoy to 64%. Non-GAAP operating profit increased 10% yoy to Rmb8.9b. Non-GAAP net profit rose 26.7% yoy to Rmb9.5b, in line with consensus estimate. Net margin expanded 5ppt yoy to 34% in 3Q25. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$276.00 (US$170.00).
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile The phasing out of subsidies has hammered auto sales. PV sales fell 14% yoy, and PEV sales edged up 1-2% yoy during 1-16 Nov 25. Subsidies are likely to continue into 2026 at reduced levels. We expect PV and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20%, driven by exports. Tighter regulatory oversight amid rising safety concerns should benefit OEMs such as Geely and Great Wall. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Company Res...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The phasing out of subsidies has hammered auto sales. PV sales fell 14% yoy, and PEV sales edged up 1-2% yoy during 1-16 Nov 25. Subsidies are likely to continue into 2026 at reduced levels. We expect PV and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20%, driven by exports. Tighter regulatory oversight amid rising safety concerns should benefit OEMs such as Geely and Great Wall. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Company Re...
Switch 2, Hello Kitty and Demon Slayer have underlined the success of Japan’s global pop culture influence. In this review, Pelham Smithers discusses whether 2025 will be the peak, or if there more to come. In light of the capital limitations faced by Japanese game developers evident at TGS2025, Pelham thinks further consolidation is likely and suggests three likely scenarios.
Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. Garnering the most interest was the AI theme driven by: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) self-sufficiency in chip development. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel demand during Golden Week. Maintain OVERWEIGHT...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. The AI theme garnered the most interest, attributable to: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) development of self-sufficient chips. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel ...
Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
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